Stay ahead in the Forex market with Forex Forecast for September 2024. Our weekly analysis provides traders with critical insights to make informed decisions. Explore our Forex Trading Strategies to enhance your trading skills at MT4 and MT5 trading platforms.
Last week and this week
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.1079, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08, and going Short at or above 1.1080, setting a Stop Loss at 1.12.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1101 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.1026 low, set this past Tuesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.1041, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1077, for 0.33% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1027, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1072, for 0.41% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1039, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1093, for 0.49% profit. Also, on Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.1093, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1039, for 0.49% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1076, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.11, for 0.22% profit. Also, on Thursday, we could have short it at 1.11, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1076, for an extra 0.22% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD fluctuates in a narrow range slightly below 1.1100 after closing in positive territory on Wednesday. Later in the day, employment-related macroeconomic data releases from the US could influence the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation and drive the pair’s action.
On Wednesday, the USD came under selling pressure after the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of July stood at 7.67 million, down from 7.9 million in June and below the market expectation of 8.1 million.
Later in the day, the ADP Employment Change and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be featured in the US economic docket.
Markets expect the private sector payrolls to rise 145,000 in August following the 122,000 increase recorded in July. A disappointing reading close to 100,000 could feed into concerns over worsening conditions in the labor market and trigger another bout of USD selloff ahead of Friday’s August jobs report. On the other hand, a positive surprise, with a print at or above 150,000, could provide a boost to the USD and make it difficult for the EURUSD to build on Wednesday’s gains.
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD retakes 1.1100 ahead of key US data.
The currency pair has regained upside traction to trade near 1.1100 in the European session on Thursday. The pair capitalizes on the extended US Dollar even as risk sentiment remains sour heading into the key US labor market data.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rises toward 60 in the European session on Thursday, reflecting a buildup of bullish momentum. 1.1100 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as immediate resistance. In case the pair flips that level into support, 1.1160 (static level) could be seen as next hurdle ahead of 1.1200 (end-point of uptrend).
On the downside, first support is located at 1.1040 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) before 1.1000 (psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement).
Next week
For next week, and in the forecast for this week, we anticipated a deeper correction. However, the currency pair is currently in a strong bullish trend. At this point, we expect it to complete wave ‘3’ and initiate a brief correction in wave ‘4’ around 1.10671, before resuming its upward movement in wave ‘5’, which will push the previous high of 1.12331 to a new resistance level of 1.12998.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.1059, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09, and going Short at or above 1.1060, setting a Stop Loss at 1.12.
As of 11:43 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.10990.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 6: exchange rate 1.113 US Dollars, maximum 1.130, minimum 1.096. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 9: exchange rate 1.110 US Dollars, maximum 1.127, minimum 1.093. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 10: exchange rate 1.112 US Dollars, maximum 1.129, minimum 1.095. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 11: exchange rate 1.109 US Dollars, maximum 1.126, minimum 1.092.
In one week
Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, September, 12: exchange rate 1.105 US Dollars, maximum 1.122, minimum 1.088. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 13: exchange rate 1.098 US Dollars, maximum 1.114, minimum 1.082. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 16: exchange rate 1.100 US Dollars, maximum 1.117, minimum 1.084. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, September, 17: exchange rate 1.097 US Dollars, maximum 1.113, minimum 1.081. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, September, 18: exchange rate 1.105 US Dollars, maximum 1.122, minimum 1.088.
To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
