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Last week, our technical indicators suggested Long at or below 1.05750, setting a Stop Loss at 1.04, and going Short at or above 1.0560, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0587 high and 1.0459 low, set this past Monday.
So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0460, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0586, for 1.2% profit. Also, on Monday, we could have short it at 1.0586, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0460, for 1.2% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0480, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0534, for 0.54% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0472, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0543, for 0.68% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0510, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0567, for 0.54% profit. Also, Thursday, we could have short it at 1.0567, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0510, for an extra 0.54% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD pair trades with a better tone on Thursday, hovering in the 1.0530 price zone after bottoming at 1.0470 on Wednesday. The pair lacked directional momentum after falling at the beginning of the week, as investors await a catalyst that does not show up. Central bank officials’ words had no impact on the pair ahead of the December monetary policy meetings.
Neither did United States (US) employment-related figures, as market participants await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday. Investors estimate that the country has added 200,000 new job positions in November, much better than the 12,000 from October. The Unemployment Rate is expected to print at 4.2%, slightly up from the previous 4.1%.
The Euro advances despite mixed local data. Germany reported that Factory Orders were down by 1.5% on a monthly basis in October, down from the 7.2% increase posted in September. Eurozone Retail Sales in the same month fell by 0.5%, worse than the 0.3% slide anticipated.
The US released the November Challenger Job Cuts report, which showed that US-based employers announced 57,727 cuts in November, a 3.8% increase from the 55,597 cuts announced one month prior. The country will release later weekly unemployment claims data and the October Trade Balance, not expected to have a relevant impact on the EURUSD.
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD climbs above 1.0550 on broad USD weakness.
The currency pair extends its daily advance and trades above 1.0550 in the American session on Thursday. Disappointing weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US weighs on the US Dollar and helps the pair preserve its bullish momentum.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is at risk of falling. The daily chart shows sellers keep containing advances around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs slowly grind lower far above the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere below their midlines, reflecting the absence of solid buying interest.
The EURUSD pair’s near-term picture is neutral-to-bearish. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is stuck between mildly bearish 20 and 100 SMAs, while the 200 SMA gains downward traction far above the current level. Finally, technical indicators develop above their midlines yet lack directional momentum.
Support levels are at 1.0465, 1.0420, and 1.0370.
Resistance levels are at 1.0560, 1.0625, and 1.0660.
Next week
For next week, the currency pair price made downward impulse, thereby exiting from channel and starting to trade inside flat, breaking $1.0585 level.
In sum, the Euro fell to bottom part but then turned around, making a second gap, and now trading close to $1.0585 level.
In our opinion, the Euro can enter the resistance area, and then resuming its decline to $1.0385, which coincides with bottom part of flat, illustrated in the following chart.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.0565, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0385, and going Short at or above 1.0566, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07341.
As of 2:59 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.05756.
EURUSD insights
Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.
If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, December, 6: exchange rate 1.051 US Dollars, maximum 1.067, minimum 1.035. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, December, 9: exchange rate 1.052 US Dollars, maximum 1.068, minimum 1.036. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, December, 10: exchange rate 1.044 US Dollars, maximum 1.060, minimum 1.028. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, December, 11: exchange rate 1.046 US Dollars, maximum 1.062, minimum 1.030.
EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, December, 12: exchange rate 1.045 US Dollars, maximum 1.061, minimum 1.029. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, December, 13: exchange rate 1.053 US Dollars, maximum 1.069, minimum 1.037. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, December, 16: exchange rate 1.052 US Dollars, maximum 1.068, minimum 1.036. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, December, 17: exchange rate 1.060 US Dollars, maximum 1.076, minimum 1.044. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, December, 18: exchange rate 1.054 US Dollars, maximum 1.070, minimum 1.038.
To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
