Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.09, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0741, and going Short at or above 1.09232, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1274.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1048 high, set this past Monday, and 1.0916 low set today, Thursday. So, on Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.1047, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1037, for 0.09% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1045, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0939, for 0.97% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.0965, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0891, for 0.68% profit. Thursday, we could have short it at 1.0971, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0917, for an extra 0.49 ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair recovered some ground on Thursday, hitting an intraday high of 1.0972 during European trading hours. The US Dollar lost momentum in the previous American session following the release of uneventful Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. The document showed policymakers indeed believe 2024 will bring rate cuts but gave no hints on when or how it might occur. Additionally, officials noted that “the policy rate is likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle.”

The United States (US) also reported on Wednesday that job openings in November stood at 8.79 million, according to the  Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved in December to 47.4 from 46.7 in the previous month.

The EURUSD stabilized at around 1.0950 ahead of first-tier data. Investors await the preliminary estimate of the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), foreseen in December at 3.8% YoY, much higher than the previous 2.3%. Across the pond, the US will release the ADP survey on job creation. The private sector is expected to have added 115K new positions in December, up from the 103K created in November. US employment-related data is relevant ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to be released on Friday.

 Technical Analysis

The EURUSD continues to trade in positive territory at around 1.0950 on Thursday. The data from Germany showed that the annual CPI inflation rose to 3.7% in December, while ADP Employment Report revealed that US private payrolls rose by 164,000.

From a technical point of view, the EURUSD pair lacks bullish strength. The daily chart shows it currently stands above a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs remain directionless, far below the shorter one. At the same time, the Momentum indicator maintains its bearish slope within neutral levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator bounced from around its 50 level, reflecting the latest recovery rather than suggesting further gains ahead.

In the near term, the risk remains skewed to the downside. EURUSD met sellers around a firmly bearish 20 SMA and currently struggles with a mildly bullish 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, supporting another leg south. Bears could take control of the pair if it breaks below the 1.0910 price zone, the immediate support area.

Support levels are at 1.0910, 1.0880, and 1.0845.

Resistance levels are at 1.0990, 1.1025, and 1.1060.

For the next week, from a technical perspective, the EURUSD pair is approaching a very important resistance point, which is also a bullish target. So, we will be looking for some Reversal Pattern on a smaller timeframe (1H), and if it happens, shorts most likely will add new positions to the currency pair.

Hence, our technical analysis suggests going Long at or below 1.09714, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08, and going Short at or above 1.09715, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10764.


As of 13:43 PM (EST), the EURUSD was trading at 1.09480.


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, January, 5: exchange rate 1.091 US Dollars, maximum 1.107, minimum 1.075. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, January, 8: exchange rate 1.081 US Dollars, maximum 1.097, minimum 1.065. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, January, 9: exchange rate 1.082 US Dollars, maximum 1.098, minimum 1.066. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, January, 10: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, January, 11: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, January, 12: exchange rate 1.081 US Dollars, maximum 1.097, minimum 1.065. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, January, 15: exchange rate 1.083 US Dollars, maximum 1.099, minimum 1.067. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, January, 16: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, January, 17: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068.


Wishing everyone a joyous and prosperous 2024!

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!




Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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