Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.09203, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07, and going Short at or above 1.095, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0866 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.0724 low, set this past Tuesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0732, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0798, for 0.61% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0725, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0779, for 0.5% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0764, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0837, for 0.68% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0836, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0865, for an extra 0.27% ROI.


Fundamental Overview

EURUSD gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level in over a week above 1.0850. The pair’s near-term technical outlook points to overbought conditions as market focus shifts to key labor market data from the US on Friday.

Disappointing ISM Services PMI data from the US triggered a US Dollar (USD) selloff in the American session on Wednesday. The headline PMI declined to 51.4 from 52.6, showing a loss of momentum in the service sector’s activity growth. More importantly, the Prices Paid Index fell to 53.4 from 58.6 to highlight a softening in the sector’s input inflation.

In the meantime, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell repeated that they are not in a rush to lower the policy rate and added that they have time to let incoming data guide their policy decisions.

In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which is forecast to edge higher to 214,000 from 210,000. A reading close to 200,000 could help the USD stage a rebound while an increase beyond 220,000 could force the currency to continue to weaken against its rivals.

Nevertheless, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday and market participants could move to the sidelines while waiting for the jobs report.


Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is creeping higher to near 1.0850 on Thursday’s European morning. The US Dollar stays defensive after the weaker-than-expected US March ISM Services PMI data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments, underpinning the pair ahead of more Fed-speak and US jobs data.


The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed above 70, pointing to overbought conditions in the near term.

On the upside, 1.0865 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as immediate resistance before 1.0900 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.0950 (beginning point of the downtrend).

The 200-period and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) form strong support at 1.0850-1.0845.

In case EURUSD falls below that area and starts using it as resistance, additional losses toward 1.0800 (psychological level) and 1.0780 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).


For the next week, the currency pair price is showing signs of recovery. The EURUSD is drawing some strength from a significantly weaker US dollar, despite cooling inflation in Germany and the market’s lack of concern over the upcoming Eurozone HICP, US ADP employment data, and Powell’s speech.

However, this rebound may be short-lived as the EURUSD is expected to encounter early resistance at the EMA 34 and 89. The dominant bearish trend and the pair’s position below both EMAs signal tough times ahead for buyers. Therefore, we should limit buying for now and continue to prioritize selling in line with the trend.

Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.08599, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07, and going Short at or above 1.0860, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1025.



As of 12:33 pM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08587.



EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, April, 5: exchange rate 1.090 US Dollars, maximum 1.106, minimum 1.074. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, April, 8: exchange rate 1.093 US Dollars, maximum 1.109, minimum 1.077. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, April, 9: exchange rate 1.088 US Dollars, maximum 1.104, minimum 1.072. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, April, 10: exchange rate 1.089 US Dollars, maximum 1.105, minimum 1.073.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, April, 11: exchange rate 1.086 US Dollars, maximum 1.102, minimum 1.070. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, April, 12: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, April, 15: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, April, 16: exchange rate 1.087 US Dollars, maximum 1.103, minimum 1.071. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, April, 17: exchange rate 1.082 US Dollars, maximum 1.098, minimum 1.066.


Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!



Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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