Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.12267, setting a Stop Loss at 1.12997, and going Long at or below 1.11, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09939.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1047 high set this past Monday, and 1.0913 low set today, Thursday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0992, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1046, for 0.49% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0950, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1003, for 0.48% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0917, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1019, for 0.93% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0912, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0948, for an extra 0.33% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

EURUSD closed the first three days of the week in negative territory and touched its lowest level since July 7 at 1.0913 early Thursday before staging a modest rebound. The pair remains technically bearish and the risk-averse market atmosphere suggests that the Euro could have a difficult time staying resiling against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.

After the data from the US showed that employment in the private sector increase by 324,000 in July, much higher than the market expectation of 189,000, the USD continued to gather strength. The sharp decline witnessed in major equity indexes following Wall Street’s opening bell provided an additional boost to the currency and forced EUR/USD to continue to stretch lower.

At the time of press, Euro Stoxx 50 Index was down more than 1% and US stock index futures were losing between 0.4% and 0.6%, showing that safe-haven flows continue to dominate the markets. Another bearish opening in Wall Street and an extended slide in US stocks could weigh on EUR/USD in the American session.

Market participants will also keep a close eye on the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and July ISM Services PMI data. Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, a smaller-than-expected Jobless Claims print and a reading above 50 in the ISM PMI’s Employment component could provide an additional boost to the USD.

Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart started to edge higher after touching 30, suggesting that EURUSD is staging a technical correction. On the upside, the upper-limit of the descending regression channel forms first resistance at 1.0950.

Once the pair stabilizes above that level, it could extend its recovery toward 1.0975 (20-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.1000-1.1010 area (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend, 200-period Simple Moving Average).

On the other hand, 1.0900 (psychological level, static level) aligns as interim support before 1.0870 (lower-limit of the descending channel) and 1.0830 (beginning point of the latest uptrend).

 For next week, EURUSD, the price started to fall earlier than we expected and did not enter the BSL range before it fell! If the price stabilizes above the support level of 1.095 to 1.097, we can expect price growth to higher levels.

Our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.0941, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1045, and going Long at or below 10940, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08.

As of 11:00 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.09320.


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 4: exchange rate 1.087 US Dollars, maximum 1.103, minimum 1.071. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 7: exchange rate 1.089 US Dollars, maximum 1.105, minimum 1.073. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 8: exchange rate 1.087 US Dollars, maximum 1.103, minimum 1.071. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 9: exchange rate 1.091 US Dollars, maximum 1.107, minimum 1.075.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 10: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 11: exchange rate 1.083 US Dollars, maximum 1.099, minimum 1.067. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 14: exchange rate 1.082 US Dollars, maximum 1.098, minimum 1.066. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 15: exchange rate 1.076 US Dollars, maximum 1.092, minimum 1.060. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 16: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!



Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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