Forex Forecast: 6 – 10 November 2023 for MT4 MT5
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.05610, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0490, and going Short at or above 1.06182, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0675 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.0518 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0547, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0625, for 0.74% profit. Monday, we could have also short it at 1.0625, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0547, for 0.73% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0674, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0556, for 1.11% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0519, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0586, for 0.64% profit. Thursday, we could have short it at 1.0638, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0584, for an extra 0.51% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
EURUSD made a sharp U-turn in the American session on Wednesday and closed modestly higher after falling toward 1.0500 earlier in the day. The pair preserved its recovery momentum and advanced to the 1.0600 area in the early European session on Thursday.
The US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure late Wednesday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) failed to convince markets that they could still opt for one more rate increase in December.
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% as anticipated and the policy statement read that policymakers will take a range of economic factors into account when determining the extent of possible additional policy firming. In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from confirming a no change in the policy rate this year but acknowledged that rising bond yields were causing financial conditions to tighten.
Commenting on the Fed event, “overall, we think it is more likely that interest rates will not be raised further. This is because the central bank has been very cautious in recent weeks, despite some surprisingly strong data,” Commerzbank Research analysts said. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 20% chance that the Fed will hike again in December.
In the Fed aftermath, Wall Street’s main indexes registered strong gains. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.3% and 0.7%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 Index was up more than 1%. In case risk flows continue to dominate the action in the second half of the day, EURUSD could continue to stretch higher, at least until Friday’s October jobs report from the US.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD pushes higher above 1.0600 as USD sell-off continues.
The currency pair gathered bullish momentum and climbed to a fresh daily top above 1.0600 on Thursday. The US Dollar continues to weaken against its rivals in the Fed aftermath and helps the pair stretch higher ahead of mid-tier data releases.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose above 50 and EUR/USD closed the last three 4-hour candles above the 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting the bullish shift in the short-term outlook.
On the upside, 1.0640 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as first resistance before 1.0660 (static level) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement).
In case EURUSD returns below 1.0570-1.0580 (100-period SMA, 200-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), technical sellers could take action. In this scenario, 1.0530 (static level) could act as interim support before 1.0500 (psychological level).
For next week, According to the previous scenario, in a certain future (1-2 weeks), we expected a temporary strengthening of the Euro, which is currently happening. In the near future, most likely, buyers will approach the level of 1.06745, from where the “insidious” plan of buyers to “throw out” sellers from the market will begin. To do this, it is necessary to make a local update of the maximum, and as a result, it is most likely the price will touch the level of 1.07000.
Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Long at or below 1.06275, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05194, and going Short at or above 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0798.
As of 12:20 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.0651.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 3: exchange rate 1.057 US Dollars, maximum 1.073, minimum 1.041. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 6: exchange rate 1.053 US Dollars, maximum 1.069, minimum 1.037. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 7: exchange rate 1.058 US Dollars, maximum 1.074, minimum 1.042. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 8: exchange rate 1.058 US Dollars, maximum 1.074, minimum 1.042.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 9: exchange rate 1.058 US Dollars, maximum 1.074, minimum 1.042. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 10: exchange rate 1.056 US Dollars, maximum 1.072, minimum 1.040. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 13: exchange rate 1.048 US Dollars, maximum 1.064, minimum 1.032. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 14: exchange rate 1.055 US Dollars, maximum 1.071, minimum 1.039. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 15: exchange rate 1.056 US Dollars, maximum 1.072, minimum 1.040.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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