Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05252, and going Short at or above 1.09, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11903.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0692 high set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.0532 low set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0534, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0622, for 0.84% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0576, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0648, for 0.68% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0567, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0694, for 1.2% profit. Today, we could have bought it at 1.0615, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0675, for an extra 0.57% ROI.

Fundamental Overview
Following Wednesday’s impressive rebound, EURUSD has lost its direction and declined below 1.0650 on Wednesday. The pair stays fragile and additional losses could be witnessed once 1.0620 is confirmed as resistance.

The data published by Eurostat revealed on Thursday that the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose to 5.6% on a yearly basis in February from 5.3% in January. On a monthly basis, the Core HICP came in at +0.8%, surpassing the market expectation of 0% by a wide margin.
Despite the hot HICP readings, the Euro is finding it difficult to attract investors, who were not surprised given the stronger-than-forecast inflation prints from France, Spain and Germany announced earlier this week.

In an interview with a Spanish TV channel on Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that a 50 basis points (ECB) hike in rates in March remain on the table with inflation remaining too high. “We still have to pursue higher interest rates, we don’t know the peak yet,” Lagarde added.

In the American session, the US Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which is forecasting to stay below 200K. Labor market conditions remain tight in the US unless this data comes in much higher above 200K, which could hurt the US Dollar, the market reaction is likely to remain short-lived.

Investors will be paying close attention to risk perception in the second half of the day. US stock index futures trade in negative territory in the European session. An extended slide in Wall Street’s main indexes after the opening bell should help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and made it difficult for EURUSD to gain traction.

Technical Analysis
EURUSD holds above 1.0600 after EU inflation data. The currency pair continues to trade in the negative territory despite having recovered modestly from the daily low it set near 1.0600 after stronger-than-expected HICP inflation data from the Eurozone. Investors await ECB Policy Meeting Accounts and Jobless Claims data from the US.

EURUSD trades within a touching distance of 1.0620, where the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) converge with the upper limit of the broken descending regression channel coming from early February. In case the pair falls below that level and starts using it as resistance, additional sellers could come into play and trigger a fresh leg lower toward 1.0600 (psychological level, static level), 1.0560 (mid-point of the descending channel( and 1.0540 (static level).

1.0660 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, 100-period SMA) aligns as initial resistance ahead of 1.0700 (static level, psychological level) and 1.0720 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

For next week, our technical analysis are looking for a selling opportunity around 1.057 zone, once it triggers any bearish confirmation.

Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.05613, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06, and going Long at or below 1.06246, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05.

As of 12:45 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.06145.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, March, 3: exchange rate 1.077 US Dollars, maximum 1.093, minimum 1.061. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, March, 6: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, March, 7: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, March, 8: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, March, 9: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, March, 10: exchange rate 1.070 US Dollars, maximum 1.086, minimum 1.054. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, March, 13: exchange rate 1.066 US Dollars, maximum 1.082, minimum 1.050. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, March, 14: exchange rate 1.065 US Dollars, maximum 1.081, minimum 1.049. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, March, 15: exchange rate 1.068 US Dollars, maximum 1.084, minimum 1.052.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!




Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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