Forex Forecast: 5 – 9 September 2022
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Short at or above 1.0050, setting a Stop Loss at 1.02, and to go Long below 1.0023, setting a Stop Loss at 0.97.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0079 high, set yesterday, Wednesday, and 0.9913 low, set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have Bought the currency pair at 0.9915, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0027, for 1.13% profit. Tuesday, we could have Short it at 1.005, Covering it on an intraday trading at 0.9983, for 0.67% profit. Also Tuesday, we could have Bought it at 0.9983, Selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0054, for 0.71% profit. Wednesday, we could have Short it at 1.005, Covering it on an intraday trading at 0.9973, for 0.73% profit. Also Wednesday, we could have Bought it at 0.9973, Selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0077, for 1.04% profit. Thursday, we could have Bought the currency pair at 1.001, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0046, for an extra 0.36% ROI.
After having registered its highest daily close in nearly two weeks at 1.0057, EURUSD has lost its bullish momentum on Thursday. Nevertheless, the pair holds comfortably above parity and the near-term technical outlook suggests that sellers remain on the sidelines for the time being.
Following the hot inflation data from the euro area on Wednesday, the shared currency initially struggled to gather strength but hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) bets allowed EUR/USD to push higher. Reuters reported earlier in the day that Eurozone money markets currently price in an 80% chance of a 75 basis points (bps) ECB rate hike next week, compared to just over 50% earlier in the week. This market positioning, however, also suggests that the euro could have a difficult time continuing to outperform the greenback.
Meanwhile, markets remain risk-averse amid growing concerns over a global economic slowdown due to ongoing coronavirus-related restrictions in China. Reflecting the souring mood, US stock index futures are down between 0.5% and 1%.
In case safe-haven flows dominate the financial markets in the second half of the day, EURUSD could stay under bearish pressure.
EURUSD recovers towards 1.0050 as dollar eases ahead of US ISM PM, as the US dollar bulls take a breather despite risk-aversion and firmer Treasury yields. The downside in the pair appears capped, courtesy of hawkish ECB rate hike expectations. US ISM PMI next in focus.
Following the decline witnessed during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, EUR/USD stayed above 1.0020 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, 20-period SMA).
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart started to edge higher after having retreated to the 50 area earlier in the day, confirming the bullish tilt in the near-term technical outlook.
On the upside, 1.0080 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 100-period SMA) aligns as next resistance before 1.0130 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0145 (200-period SMA).
Supports are located at 1.0020, 1.0000 (psychological level, static level) and 0.9980 (50-period SMA).
For next week, After finding a base at 0.99 and 3 attempts of reoccurring parity, EURUSD has finally managed to stabilize above this important figure. A second base is formed at this price level.
The following technical analysis chart is suggesting Buying the currency pair at or below 1.01, setting a Stop Loss at 0.99, and Shorting it above 1.01, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0179.
As of 12:20 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.00155.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 2: exchange rate 1.0095 Dollars, maximum 1.0246, minimum 0.9944. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 5: exchange rate 1.0110 Dollars, maximum 1.0262, minimum 0.9958. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 6: exchange rate 1.0139 Dollars, maximum 1.0291, minimum 0.9987. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 7: exchange rate 1.0136 Dollars, maximum 1.0288, minimum 0.9984.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, September, 8: exchange rate 1.0142 Dollars, maximum 1.0294, minimum 0.9990. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 9: exchange rate 1.0142 Dollars, maximum 1.0294, minimum 0.9990. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 12: exchange rate 1.0167 Dollars, maximum 1.0320, minimum 1.0014. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, September, 13: exchange rate 1.0069 Dollars, maximum 1.0220, minimum 0.9918. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, September, 14: exchange rate 1.0021 Dollars, maximum 1.0171, minimum 0.9871.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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