Stay ahead in the Forex market with KeySoft’s Forecast for 5-9 August 2024. Our weekly analysis provides traders with critical insights to make informed decisions. Explore our Forex Trading Strategies to enhance your trading skills at MT4 and MT5 trading platforms.

Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08696, setting a Stop Loss at 1.075, and going Short at or above 1.08697, setting a Stop Loss at 1.098.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0850 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.0777 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0798, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0836, for 0.35% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0801, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0849, for 0.44% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0776, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0834, for 0.54% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0783, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0837, for an extra 0.5% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD edged higher in the late American session on Wednesday and registered modest daily gains as the US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The pair, however, came under renewed bearish pressure early Thursday and dropped to its weakest level since early July below 1.0800.

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at the range of 5.25%-5.5% following the July policy meeting, as widely anticipated. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the data-dependent approach, he acknowledged that a rate cut will be on the table at the September meeting. Additionally, Powell said that there was a “real discussion” about lowering the policy rate at this meeting.

These comments helped the market mood improve and caused the USD to lose interest. Because a September rate cut was already fully priced in ahead of the Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the USD weakness remained short-lived, not allowing EURUSD to stretch higher.

In the second half of the day, the US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Investors expect the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to tick up to 236,000 from 235,000 in the previous week. A noticeable decline in this data could provide an additional boost to the USD and further weigh on EURUSD. Later in the session, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July will be watched closely by market participants. If the headline PMI print comes in above 50, the immediate reaction could support the USD. On the other hand, a negative surprise is likely to hurt the currency and help EURUSD limit its losses.

For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD falls below 1.0800 as US Dollar rebounds ahead of data.

The currency pair stays on the back foot and trades at fresh multi-week lows below 1.0800 on Thursday. The US Dollar finds its feet after the dovish Fed decision-led slump. Looking ahead, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be the highlight.

The EURUSD turned south after testing the descending trend line resistance, currently located at 1.0830, and the Relative Strength Index extended its slide toward 30, reflecting a buildup of bearish momentum.

The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend aligns as immediate support at 1.0780 before 1.0740 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.0700 (psychological level, static level).

On the upside, the 100-day, the 50-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) form strong resistance in the 1.0800-1.0820 area. Once the pair rises above this region and starts using it as support, an extended recovery toward 1.0860 (20-day SMA) could be seen.

KeySoft Forex Forecast for 5-9 August 2024: For next week, the currency pair in the following chart, M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the very short-terms.

Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.08176, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0725, and going Short at or above 1.08225, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0897.

As of 12:40 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07872.

KeySoft Forex Forecast for 5-9 August 2024: EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 2: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 5: exchange rate 1.083 US Dollars, maximum 1.099, minimum 1.067. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 6: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 7: exchange rate 1.081 US Dollars, maximum 1.097, minimum 1.065.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 8: exchange rate 1.082 US Dollars, maximum 1.098, minimum 1.066. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 9: exchange rate 1.081 US Dollars, maximum 1.097, minimum 1.065. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 12: exchange rate 1.077 US Dollars, maximum 1.093, minimum 1.061. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 13: exchange rate 1.078 US Dollars, maximum 1.094, minimum 1.062. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 14: exchange rate 1.077 US Dollars, maximum 1.093, minimum 1.061.

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Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!