Forex Forecast: 4 – 8 September 2023 for MT4 MT5
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.08226, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10383, and going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.062.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0947 high set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.0782 low set this past Tuesday. So, Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.0822, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0794, for 0.26% profit. Monday, we could have also bought it at 1.0783, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0891, for 1% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0891, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0783, for 0.99% profit. Tuesday, we could have also bought it at 1.0783, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.08, for 0.16% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.0946, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0856, for 0.82% profit. Thursday, we could have short it at 1.0939, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0863, for an extra 0.69% ROI.
The EURUSD reached two-week highs at 1.0947 and subsequently experienced a pullback, although it has remained comfortably above the 1.0900 level. The overall bias continues to favor the upside, with support coming from the corrective movement of the US Dollar. Recent data releases from the US have exerted pressure on the Greenback, while inflation figures in the Eurozone suggest that additional tightening may be necessary from the European Central Bank (ECB).
The annual inflation rate in Germany fell from 6.2% to 6.1% in August. Although the trend is downward, it remains elevated. In Spain, the annual rate rose from 2.3% to 2.6% as expected, with the core rate remaining above 6%. Despite the downward trend, inflation levels remain too high, leaving room for potential tightening from the ECB. Consumer and business confidence indicators dropped in August. On Thursday, more inflation data is due with the Eurozone Consumer Price Index.
In the US, data released on Wednesday showed a smaller than expected increase in private payrolls, with 177,000 jobs added compared to the market consensus of 195,000. Q2 GDP was also revised lower. These factors contributed to the correction of the US Dollar. However, there is still more data to come before the end of the week. On Thursday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index and Jobless Claims are due, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
Despite the reported data falling below expectations, the fundamentals of the US seem to be in better shape compared to those of the Eurozone, which could limit the upside potential in EURUSD.
The EURUSD extended its rebound from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), rising for the third consecutive day.
The pair has surpassed the 20-day SMA, which is currently turning flat, indicating a positive outlook for the Euro that stands at the 100-day SMA. The daily chart also shows bullish momentum remaining intact.
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD seems to have lost some momentum but maintains an overall bias to the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains strong in favor of the Euro. A consolidation above 1.0930 would suggest further gains, with the next resistance level at 1.0955 and then 1.0980.
A bearish correction could see a pullback to 1.0895 without significantly altering the bullish bias, which will hold as long as the price remains above the 20-SMA, currently near 1.0850.
For next week, this past Tuesday, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to 8.82 million in July vs. 9.46 million expected. This created a bearish against the USD through all the currency pairs and the US Dollar Index faces a bearish wave that was stopped near 103.4.
Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.09, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10383, and going Long at or below 1.08832, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06370.
As of 11:28 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08691.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 1: exchange rate 1.098 US Dollars, maximum 1.114, minimum 1.082. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 4: exchange rate 1.104 US Dollars, maximum 1.121, minimum 1.087. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 5: exchange rate 1.107 US Dollars, maximum 1.124, minimum 1.090. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 6: exchange rate 1.105 US Dollars, maximum 1.122, minimum 1.088.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, September, 7: exchange rate 1.100 US Dollars, maximum 1.117, minimum 1.084. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 8: exchange rate 1.102 US Dollars, maximum 1.119, minimum 1.085. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 11: exchange rate 1.097 US Dollars, maximum 1.113, minimum 1.081. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, September, 12: exchange rate 1.100 US Dollars, maximum 1.117, minimum 1.084. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, September, 13: exchange rate 1.100 US Dollars, maximum 1.117, minimum 1.084.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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