Stay ahead in the Forex market with Forex Forecast for October 2024. Our weekly analysis provides traders with critical insights to make informed decisions. Explore our Forex Trading Strategies to enhance your trading skills at MT4 and MT5 trading platforms.
Last week and this week
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.1111, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0954, and going Short at or above 1.1129, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1220.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1214 high set this past Wednesday, and 1.1083 low, set this past Monday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.1084, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1167, for 0.75% profit. Also on Monday, we could have short it at 1.1167, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1084, for 0.75% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1103, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1180, for 0.69% profit. Also on Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1180, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1129, for 0.46% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.1213, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1122, for 0.82% profit. Thursday, we could have short it at 1.1157, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1127, for an extra 0.27% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD pair regains some positive traction on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day’s sharp retracement slide from the 1.1215 area, or its highest level since July 2023.
The overnight goodish US Dollar (USD) recovery from the YTD low runs out of steam amid bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, investors are pricing in over a 50% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by another 50 basis points (bps) in November, despite the fact that several Fed officials this week tried to push back against market expectations.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman defended her decision to vote against the oversized interest rate cut and cautioned against steep rate reductions. This comes on top of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s remarks on Monday, saying that the 50 bps rate cut last week was an appropriate way to kick off the policy-easing cycle, though the Fed needn’t go on a mad dash to lower rates. Hence, investors will closely scrutinise Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments later this Thursday for cues about the future rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and the EURUSD pair.
Apart from this, Thursday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of the final Q2 GDP print, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders data – and speeches by other influential FOMC members might contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the EURUSD pair.
In the meantime, the latest optimism led by a slew of stimulus measures announced this week by China remains supportive of a generally positive risk tone. This, in turn, might continue to undermine the safe-haven Greenback and act as a tailwind for the currency pair.
That said, bets for at least 25 bps rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in October might keep a lid on any sharp appreciation for the shared currency. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.1200 mark before confirming a fresh breakout for the EURUSD pair and positioning for a further near-term positive move.
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD retakes 1.1150 ahead of Powell, Lagarde.
The currency pair is trading close to 1.1150 in European trading on Thursday, reversing the latest ECB report-led dip.
The pair stays supported amid a positive risk tone and a subdued US Dollar performance. Speeches from Powell and Lagarde eyed.
From a technical perspective, the overnight failure to close above the 1.1200 mark constitutes the formation of a bearish double-top pattern on the daily chart. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory, which, along with the emergence of some dip-buying on Thursday, favors bullish traders. Hence, some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high, around the 1.1215 region, should pave the way for additional gains. The EURUSD pair might then accelerate the momentum towards the July 2023 swing high, around the 1.1275 region, en route to the 1.1300 mark. Spot prices could climb further towards the 1.1335 region, the 1.1375 area and the 1.1400 round figure.
On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the 1.1120 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.1100 mark. This is closely followed by the weekly low, around the 1.1085-1.1080 zone, below which the EUR/USD pair could drop to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently near the 1.1020 zone. Some follow-through selling, leading to a subsequent break below the 1.1000 psychological mark, or the monthly trough, will suggest that spot prices have topped out and expose the next relevant support near the 1.0950-1.0940 region.
Next week
For next week, The key level for today, Thursday is at 1.11500.
If the Euro falls to the minimum level of last Friday, we should take advantage, adding new buy orders.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.1154, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10666, and going Short at or above 1.11747, setting a Stop Loss at 1.13.
As of 12:02 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.11556.
EURUSD insights
Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.
If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, September, 27: exchange rate 1.109 US Dollars, maximum 1.126, minimum 1.092. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 30: exchange rate 1.116 US Dollars, maximum 1.133, minimum 1.099. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, October, 1: exchange rate 1.111 US Dollars, maximum 1.128, minimum 1.094. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, October, 2: exchange rate 1.111 US Dollars, maximum 1.128, minimum 1.094.
EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, October, 3: exchange rate 1.115 US Dollars, maximum 1.132, minimum 1.098. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, October, 4: exchange rate 1.115 US Dollars, maximum 1.132, minimum 1.098. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, October, 7: exchange rate 1.113 US Dollars, maximum 1.130, minimum 1.096. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, October, 8: exchange rate 1.119 US Dollars, maximum 1.136, minimum 1.102. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, October, 9: exchange rate 1.119 US Dollars, maximum 1.136, minimum 1.102.
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Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
