Forex Forecast: 30 October – 3 November 2023 for MT4 MT5
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.05610, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0490, and going Short at or above 1.06182, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0695 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.0532 low, set today, Thursday. So, Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.0677, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0571, for 0.99% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0694, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0583, for 1.04% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0533, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0571, for an extra 0.36% ROI.
The EURUSD dropped for the second consecutive day, falling below 1.0600 due to a stronger US Dollar. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US economic data.
The German IFO Business Survey surprised to the upside, with the headline index at 86.9, surpassing expectations of 85.9. This marked the first increase since April. The Eurozone Central Bank reported a decrease in year-on-year private loans growth to 0.8% from 1% in August.
The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as inflation slows down and economic activity remains subdued. Discussions are expected to revolve around modifications to reserve requirements and the balance sheet.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely maintain a hawkish tone, considering that inflation levels remain high and to appease the hawks within the Bank.
Housing data released in the US surpassed expectations on Wednesday. On Thursday, crucial data will be released, with a focus on Q3 Gross Domestic Product (including the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index). Additionally, Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders will be relevant. Robust data could further strengthen the US Dollar, while negative surprises could trigger a correction.
EURUSD remains vulnerable near 1.0550 ahead of ECB policy announcements.
The currency pair is trading near 1.0550, on the defensive at weekly lows early Thursday, as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The expected ECB pause and a downbeat mood-led US Dollar demand undermine the pair. US Q3 GDP eyed as well.
The EURUSD continued its decline for the second consecutive day, extending the retreat from monthly highs.
In the chart above illustrates support above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0560. Technical indicators on the daily chart present a mixed picture, with Momentum above the midline but trending downwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a positive slope but also turning south.
The pair is currently testing the support area around 1.0560. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators point towards the downside.
The key support level is an uptrend line around 1.0550. As long as the price remains above that level, a resurgence in the Euro’s rally is possible.
However, a break below would trigger further losses, initially targeting 1.0530 and then 1.0500. For the technical outlook to turn bullish, the Euro would need to rise above 1.0610.
For next week, the Euro has faced steady selling pressure since July, but now there may be signs of the currency bottoming against the greenback.
The first pattern on the following chart is the falling trend-line along the weekly highs. EURUSD has been pushing above that resistance this week. You may notice how it started rallying a year ago, after breaking a similar trend-line.
The second pattern is the January low around 1.048. The currency pair fell under that level in early October but recovered. The results were a false breakdown and a hammer candlestick.
Chart watchers may view both as bullish reversal patterns. This setup could keep traders on alert for a potential rally given upcoming events like gross domestic product (GDP) this morning, the Federal Reserve meeting on November 1 and non-farm payrolls on November 3.
Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Long at or below 1.06, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0490, and going Short at or above 1.06182, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07.
As of 10:13 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.05404.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, October, 27: exchange rate 1.055 US Dollars, maximum 1.071, minimum 1.039. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, October, 30: exchange rate 1.047 US Dollars, maximum 1.063, minimum 1.031. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, October, 31: exchange rate 1.054 US Dollars, maximum 1.070, minimum 1.038. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 1: exchange rate 1.055 US Dollars, maximum 1.071, minimum 1.039.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 2: exchange rate 1.059 US Dollars, maximum 1.075, minimum 1.043. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 3: exchange rate 1.055 US Dollars, maximum 1.071, minimum 1.039. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 6: exchange rate 1.057 US Dollars, maximum 1.073, minimum 1.041. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 7: exchange rate 1.062 US Dollars, maximum 1.078, minimum 1.046. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 8: exchange rate 1.060 US Dollars, maximum 1.076, minimum 1.044.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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