Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05, and going Short at or above 1.0701, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0848.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0729 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.0623 low, set this past Monday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0624, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0670, for 0.43% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0639, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0711, for 0.68% profit. Tuesday, we could have also short it at 1.0711, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0639, for 0.68% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0678, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0714, for 0.34% profit. Wednesday, we could have also short it at 1.0714, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0678, for 0.34% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0698, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0728, for 0.28% profit, and we could have also short it at 1.0728, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0698, for an extra 0.28% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
EURUSD gained traction and climbed to its highest level in over 10 days above 1.0720 early Thursday. The pair’s technical outlook suggests that the pair has more room on the upside before turning overbought in the near term.
The renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) helps EUR/USD hold its ground in the European trading hours. Although US stock index futures trade deep in negative territory, the USD struggles to find demand.
The Nasdaq Futures were last seen losing more than 1% on the day. This, however, seems to be a product of the sharp decline seen in technology shares following disappointing earnings reports, rather than a general risk aversion.
Later in the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of the annualized real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter. Investors expect the US economy to grow 2.5% following the 3.4% expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2023.
In case the data shows that the US economy grew at a softer pace than forecast in Q1, the initial reaction could cause the USD to continue to weaken against its rivals. On the other hand, a GDP reading at or above the market expectation could support the USD and weigh on EURUSD.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD holds gains above 1.0700, as key US data loom. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the above 4-hour chart is yet to climb above 70, suggesting that EURUSD has more room on the upside before it turns technically overbought.
The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as immediate resistance at 1.0730 before 1.0750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend). In case EURUSD manages to clear the latter, it could target 1.0790 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement) next.
On the downside, 1.0700 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) could be seen as first support before 1.0660 (50-period SMA) and 1.0635 (static level).
For the next week, the downtrend persists as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provide some support for the US Dollar, acting as a barrier to any recovery in the EURUSD. According to a careful analysis of the charts, the support level at 1.060 is likely to be breached soon as bearish momentum grows stronger. The price moving below both the 34 and 89 EMA lines is a significant advantage for sellers.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.07096, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06, and going Short at or above 1.072541, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08.
As of 11:23 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07282.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, April, 26: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, April, 29: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, April, 30: exchange rate 1.073 US Dollars, maximum 1.089, minimum 1.057. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, May, 1: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, May, 2: exchange rate 1.072 US Dollars, maximum 1.088, minimum 1.056. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, May, 3: exchange rate 1.078 US Dollars, maximum 1.094, minimum 1.062. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, May, 6: exchange rate 1.077 US Dollars, maximum 1.093, minimum 1.061. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, May, 7: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, May, 8: exchange rate 1.067 US Dollars, maximum 1.083, minimum 1.051.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
