EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.11325, setting a stop loss at 1.09735, and Short it at or above 1.12170.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1070 high set this past Monday, and 1.0960 set this past Tuesday. So, Monday, we could have bought it at 1.1012, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1068, for 0.51% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0973, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1045, for 0.66% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0973, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1042, for 0.63% profit. Today, we could have bought it at 1.0973, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1012, for an extra 0.36% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The major currency pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the firmer US Treasury yields, which in turn joins the risk-off mood to underpin the US dollar strength.

That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields rise 1.5 basis points (bps) near 2.33% at the latest, following a pullback from a three-year high on Wednesday. Firmer US Treasury yields favor the US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls to eye the 99.00 threshold at the latest.

Amid these plays, stock futures remain directionless after Wall Street snapped the six-day winning streak.

Although the risk-aversion wave may keep weighing on the EUR/USD prices, moves of the yields will be crucial to follow for clear directions. Forecasts suggest that the US Markit Manufacturing PMI may weaken to 56.3 from 57.3 previous readouts whereas the Services PMI seemed to have dropped to 56.0 in March, from 56.5. Further, the US Durable Goods Orders growth for February is likely turned negative with -0.5% forecasts versus 1.6% prior.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD recovers modestly on upbeat German and EU PMI data, as the currency pair edged higher toward 1.1000, with the initial market reaction to the upbeat Markit PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone, which showed that the business activity expanded at a stronger pace than expected in early March. Investors await the PMI data for the US and the NATO summit on Russia.


The EURUSD pair’s sustained weakness below the 21-DMA and a downward sloping resistance line from early February, as well as the 13-day-old previous support line, joins sluggish RSI to keep sellers hopeful to aim for short-term horizontal support near 1.0900.

On the flip side, the 21-DMA and a six-week-long descending trend line, respectively around 1.1035 and 1.1045, will challenge the quote’s further rebound. Also important will be the support-turned-resistance line from March 07 near 1.1050.

 For next week, the EURUSD is trading in a downtrend, and the pair broke the rising support line, retested it and sold further. So, I think that we are likely to see further bearish move to retest a horizontal support below 1.0950. Hence, as indicated in the following chart, our technical analysis suggest to go Short at or above 1.0940, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1050, and to go Long at or below 1.0950, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09076.


As of 11:2 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.09893.


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, March, 25: exchange rate 1.0991 Dollars, maximum 1.1156, minimum 1.0826. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, March, 28: exchange rate 1.1001 Dollars, maximum 1.1166, minimum 1.0836. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, March, 29: exchange rate 1.0963 Dollars, maximum 1.1127, minimum 1.0799. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, March, 30: exchange rate 1.0926 Dollars, maximum 1.1090, minimum 1.0762.


In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, March, 31: exchange rate 1.0988 Dollars, maximum 1.1153, minimum 1.0823. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, April, 1: exchange rate 1.1062 Dollars, maximum 1.1228, minimum 1.0896. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, April, 4: exchange rate 1.1074 Dollars, maximum 1.1240, minimum 1.0908. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, April, 5: exchange rate 1.1108 Dollars, maximum 1.1275, minimum 1.0941. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, April, 6: exchange rate 1.1028 Dollars, maximum 1.1193, minimum 1.0863.





Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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