Forex Forecast: 28 February – 4 March 2022
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the currency pair at or below around 1.1350, setting a Stop loss at 1.12905, and Short it at or above 1.1372, setting a Stop loss at 1.1475.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1391 high set this past Monday, and 1.1131 set today, Thursday. So, Monday, we could have bought the EURUSD at 1.1308, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1389, for 0.72% profit. Also on Monday, we could have short it the currency pair at 1.1389, Covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1308, for 0.72% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1289, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1365, for 0.67% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1302, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1357, for 0.49% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1133, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1305, for an extra 1.54% ROI.
The EURUSD pair plummeted to 1.1153, its lowest since late January when the pair set a multi-month low of 1.1120. Panic reached financial boards after Russia started the military assault on Ukraine. So far, roughly 70 deaths have been reported as Moscow attacked multiple military targets in its neighbor country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy imposed martial law across all of Ukraine and severed all diplomatic relations with Russia. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia is using force to try to rewrite history, adding that the organism “will deploy capabilities and forces including NATO Response Force.”
The American dollar resumed its advance heading into the US opening, and EUR/USD trades a handful of pips above the mentioned low. Market players are ignoring macroeconomic figures, although US data surely help the greenback. The Q4 Gross Domestic Product was upwardly revised to 7% QoQ as expected, while Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 18 fell to 232K, better than anticipated.
The markets will likely continue to trade accordingly to the risk-off mood, and another run to safety could be expected with the US opening, as Wall Street indexes are poised to open at multi-week lows.
EURUSD extends slide, trades around below 1.1150, remaining under constant bearish pressure as safe-haven flows continue to boost the greenback. The pair accelerates its slump as Wall Street opens with sharp losses. Investors eye the latest geopolitical developments after Russia launched an attack on Ukraine.
The EURUSD pair is down roughly 140 pips ever since Thursday’s opening, but there are no technical signs that it would change course in the near term. The pair is clearly bearish in its daily chart, collapsing below all of its moving averages and with technical indicators heading firmly lower within negative levels.
In the above 4-hour chart, the pair is oversold but poised to extend its slump. EURUSD is far below all of its moving averages, and the 20 SMA has turned sharply lower below the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes, despite being at extreme levels. The pair is dangerously close to this year’s low at 1.1120, the level to break to see another leg south later in the day.
Support levels are at 1.1120, 1.1075, and 1.1030.
Resistance levels are at 1.1210, 1.1260, and 1.1305.
For next week, EURUSD is trading in a bear triangle pattern, which makes it bearish mid-term. As illustrated in the following chart, our technical analysis is suggesting to go short at or above 1.1100, setting a Stop loss at 1.1332, and to go Long at or below 1.1050, setting a Stop loss at 1.0950.
As of 16:03 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.11092.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, February, 25: exchange rate 1.1292 Dollars, maximum 1.1461, minimum 1.1123. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, February, 28: exchange rate 1.1311 Dollars, maximum 1.1481, minimum 1.1141. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, March, 1: exchange rate 1.1296 Dollars, maximum 1.1465, minimum 1.1127. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, March, 2: exchange rate 1.1256 Dollars, maximum 1.1425, minimum 1.1087.
In 1 week, In 1 week Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, March, 3: exchange rate 1.1236 Dollars, maximum 1.1405, minimum 1.1067. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, March, 4: exchange rate 1.1260 Dollars, maximum 1.1429, minimum 1.1091. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, March, 7: exchange rate 1.1310 Dollars, maximum 1.1480, minimum 1.1140. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, March, 8: exchange rate 1.1271 Dollars, maximum 1.1440, minimum 1.1102. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, March, 9: exchange rate 1.1201 Dollars, maximum 1.1369, minimum 1.1033.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.