Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short on the second leg down at or above 1.10, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09116, and going Long at or below 1.097, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0932 high set this past Tuesday, and 1.0802 low set yesterday, Wednesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.087, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0913, for 0.4% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0834, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0931, for 0.9% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0803, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0871, for 0.63% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0848, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0876, for an extra 0.2% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

 EURUSD staged a rebound and closed the day in positive territory near 1.0850 on Wednesday after dipping to its lowest level since mid-June at 1.0800. The pair stays relatively quiet early Thursday, awaiting macroeconomic data releases from the US.

Disappointing PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone weighed heavily on the Euro during the European trading hours on Wednesday. Later in the day, weaker-than-expected US PMI data caused US Treasury bond yields to turn south and made it difficult for the US Dollar to preserve its strength. Additionally, the upbeat performance of technology stocks allowed risk flows to dominate the action later in the day and put additional weight on the USD’s shoulders.

Euro price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

Early Thursday, Nasdaq Futures gain more than 1% on the day, suggesting that the rally in technology shares are likely to continue.

The US economic docket will feature thee weekly Initial Jobless Claims and July Durable Goods Orders data. Markets forecast the number of first time applications for unemployment benefits to come in at 240,000. A bigger number could hurt the USD by highlighting looser conditions in the labor market.

Durable Goods Orders are forecast to decline 4% on a monthly basis. A negative surprise could cause the USD to weaken against its rivals. Even if the data comes in better than expected, the positive impact on the USD could remain short-lived unless the market mood sours.

Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the following four-hour chart started to move sideways after recovering to 50, reflecting the lack of bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart started to move sideways after recovering to 50, reflecting the lack of bullish momentum. On the upside, 1.0880 (upper limit of the descending regression channel, 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-period SMA) aligns as immediate resistance. Once the pair stabilizes above that level, it could face interim resistance at 1.0900 (psychological level, static level) before targeting 1.0930 (100-period SMA).

Looking south, first support could be seen at 1.0820 (mid-point of the descending channel) before 1.0800 (psychological level), 1.0780 (lower limit of the descending channel) and 1.0760 (static level).

For next week, we believe we are in a correction phase. Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.08226, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10383, and going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.062.

As of 11:44 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08532.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 25: exchange rate 1.089 US Dollars, maximum 1.105, minimum 1.073. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 28: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 29: exchange rate 1.086 US Dollars, maximum 1.102, minimum 1.070. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 30: exchange rate 1.086 US Dollars, maximum 1.102, minimum 1.070.

 

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 31: exchange rate 1.085 US Dollars, maximum 1.101, minimum 1.069. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 1: exchange rate 1.083 US Dollars, maximum 1.099, minimum 1.067. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 4: exchange rate 1.083 US Dollars, maximum 1.099, minimum 1.067. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, September, 5: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, September, 6: exchange rate 1.076 US Dollars, maximum 1.092, minimum 1.060.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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