Forex Forecast: 26 – 30 December 2022
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long at or below 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0552, and to go Short above 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07485.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0660 high set this past Tuesday, and 1.0575 low set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0577, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0657, for 0.76% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0581, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0658, for 0.73% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0591, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0645, for 0.51% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0602, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0656, for an extra 0.51% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
Ahead of the US opening, stock markets have lost their positive momentum. Most European indexes trade in the red, while US ones are poised to open with modest losses. US Treasury yields, in the meantime, remain stuck around Wednesday’s closing levels, ticking lower at the time being.
The Euro Area did not publish relevant macroeconomic figures, but the American session will bring the final revision of the US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm the economy grew at an annual pace of 2.9%. The country will also publish weekly unemployment figures and Q3 PCE inflation.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD declines toward 1.0600 after upbeat US data. EURUSD has lost its traction and retreated toward 1.0600 on Thursday. The data from the US showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, surpassing the market expectation of 2.9% and helping the US Dollar gather strength.
The above daily chart for the EURUSD pair shows that it has been ranging in a tight range ever since the week started, which results in a decreasing bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the risk remains skewed to the upside.
Technical indicators have turned flat but remain within positive levels, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding near overbought readings. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA maintains its bullish slope above the longer moving averages while below the current price.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is technically neutral.
EURUSD keeps seesawing around a flat 20 SMA, although the longer moving averages head north below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, stand around their midlines without clear directional strength.
Support levels are at 1.0580, 1.0535, and 1.0480.
Resistance levels are at 1.0650, 1.0695, and 1.0740.
For next week, the price is testing a very strong resistance zone, as it currently experiencing low trading volume. Considering that many USD pairs are forming 5 wave structures, this means we are close for a potential correction that should happen, next week, before the currency pair price trend resumes its uptrend price movement.
Hence, for next week, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.07829, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08, and to go Long at or below 1.07594, setting a Stop Loss at 1.02.
As of 16:26 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.05990.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, December, 23: exchange rate 1.0589 Dollars, maximum 1.0748, and minimum 1.0430. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, December, 26: exchange rate 1.0606 Dollars, maximum 1.0765, minimum 1.0447. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, December, 27: exchange rate 1.0629 Dollars, maximum 1.0788, minimum 1.0470. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, December, 28: exchange rate 1.0582 Dollars, maximum 1.0741, minimum 1.0423.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, December, 29: exchange rate 1.0534 Dollars, maximum 1.0692, minimum 1.0376. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, December, 30: exchange rate 1.0582 Dollars, maximum 1.0741, minimum 1.0423. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, January, 2: exchange rate 1.0676 Dollars, maximum 1.0836, minimum 1.0516. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, January, 3: exchange rate 1.0673 Dollars, maximum 1.0833, minimum 1.0513. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, January, 4: exchange rate 1.0657 Dollars, maximum 1.0817, minimum 1.0497.
Until next article, wishing all of you a wealthy trading and Merry Christmas!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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