Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.0850 setting a Stop Loss at 1.0712, and going Short at or above 1.0851, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0971.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0762 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.0686 low, set this past Monday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0712, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0738, for 0.24% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0712, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0761, for 0.46% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0725, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0753, for 0.26% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0714, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0748, for an extra 0.32% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward 1.0700 after posting small gains in the first three days of the week. The near-term technical outlook points to a bearish tilt but the pair could find support in case risk flows dominate the action in financial markets in the second half of the day.
Following the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday, the US economic docket will feature Housing Starts and Building Permits data for May on Thursday. The US Department of Labor will also release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.
The number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits rose sharply to 242,000 in the week ending June 8. Markets expect this number to decline to 235,000 in the week ending June 15. In case the data arrives at or above 240,000, investors could see this as a sign of loosening conditions in the labor market and make it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to find demand. On the other hand, a reading below 220,000 could suggest that the previous increase was due to temporary factors and help the USD stay resilient against its rivals.
In the second half of the day, investors will pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and the market mood. If Fed officials voice a preference to wait until the end of the year to lower the policy rate, EURUSD could come under renewed bearish pressure.
At the time of press, S&P Futures and Nasdaq Futures were up 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. A bullish opening in Wall Street could limit the USD’s gains and allow EURUSD to find a foot hold.
Technical Analysis
The currency pair stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory below 1.0750. The cautious market stance doesn’t allow the pair to gain traction as investors await macroeconomic data releases from the US and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the above 4-hour chart declined below 50, reflecting a lack of buyer interest. On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.0700 (psychological level, static level) before 1.0670 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.0600 (beginning point of the uptrend).
1.0730, where the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend is located, could be seen as first support ahead of 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0800 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).
For next week, the currency pair price is rebounding, and we believe the wave “3” of the higher order, in the following chart has just started its upward movement. At the moment, we expect a correction in the lower wave “2” (1.07741) and then the continuation of the upward movement to the target of the nearest maximum of 1.09168.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.08452 setting a Stop Loss at 1.07216, and going Short at or above 1.08526, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09168.
As of 1:48 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07205.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 21: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 24: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 25: exchange rate 1.078 US Dollars, maximum 1.094, minimum 1.062. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 26: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 27: exchange rate 1.068 US Dollars, maximum 1.084, minimum 1.052. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 28: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, July, 1: exchange rate 1.072 US Dollars, maximum 1.088, minimum 1.056. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, July, 2: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, July, 3: exchange rate 1.060 US Dollars, maximum 1.076, minimum 1.044.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
