Forex Forecast: 24 – 28 April 2023
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.09267, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0830, and going Short at or above 1.09990, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.10 high and 1.0908 low, set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0910, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0998, for 0.81% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0923, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0982, for 0.54% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0919, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0986, for 0.61% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0951, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0981, for an extra 0.21% ROI.
EURUSD has been having a hard time making a convincing move in either direction this week. Following Wednesday’s choppy action, the pair stays quiet near mid-1.0900s early Thursday and the near-term technical outlook fails to provide a clear directional clue.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will release the March Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts later in the session. Since that policy meeting, several ECB policymakers have stated that they are looking to raise key rates by 25 or 50 basis points (bps) in May. Nevertheless, the ECB’s publication is unlikely to hint at the size of the next rate hike.
The US economic docket will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Existing Home Sales data for March. Although a significant decline toward 200K in weekly claims could help the US Dollar (USD) gather strength, it is unlikely to influence the Federal Reserve rate hike expectations in a meaningful way.
Several Fed policymakers, including Governor Christopher Waller and hawkish policymaker Lorie Logan, will be delivering speeches later in the day.
Investors will also pay close attention to risk perception. Early Thursday, US stock index futures are down between 0.5% and 0.9%, pressured by disappointing earning figures from big technology firms. In case safe-haven flows dominate the market action in the American session, EUR/USD could come under renewed bearish pressure.
EURUSD stays near mid-1.0900s ahead of ECB speeches.
EURUSD struggles to gather bullish momentum on Thursday but manages to hold near 1.0950, ahead of ECB speeches. The European Central Bank will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and several policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde will be delivering speeches.
EURUSD was last seen trading near the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the four-hour chart. Reflecting the pair’s indecisiveness, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator continues to move sideways near 50.
On the downside, 1.0950 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as interim support before 1.0925 (100-period SMA). A four-hour close below the latter could attract sellers and open the door for an extended slide toward 1.0900 (psychological level) and 1.0870 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).
1.0980 (lower limit of the broken regression channel) forms initial resistance before 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) and 1.1030 (mid-point of the channel).
For next week, we believe price on the currency pair may continue to decline and try to break $1.0910 level. The Euro may even break this price level, retest, and fall lower to $1.0750.
Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Long at or below 1.0965, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0750, and going Short at or above 1.09715, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11.
As of 12:17 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.09717.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, April, 21: exchange rate 1.094 US Dollars, maximum 1.110, minimum 1.078. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, April, 24: exchange rate 1.099 US Dollars, maximum 1.115, minimum 1.083. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, April, 25: exchange rate 1.092 US Dollars, maximum 1.108, minimum 1.076. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, April, 26: exchange rate 1.087 US Dollars, maximum 1.103, minimum 1.071.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, April, 27: exchange rate 1.093 US Dollars, maximum 1.109, minimum 1.077. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, April, 28: exchange rate 1.101 US Dollars, maximum 1.118, minimum 1.084. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, May, 1: exchange rate 1.106 US Dollars, maximum 1.123, minimum 1.089. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, May, 2: exchange rate 1.102 US Dollars, maximum 1.119, minimum 1.085. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, May, 3: exchange rate 1.101 US Dollars, maximum 1.118, minimum 1.084.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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