Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.0831, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0745, and going Short at or above 1.0835, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0944.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0690 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.0601 low, set this past Tuesday. For this week, both of our Long and Short, last week technical analysis recommendations were away of this week EURUSD trading price range. Therefore, there were no trading opportunities for this week.
Fundamental Overview
EURUSD gained traction and closed in positive territory on Wednesday, snapping a six-day losing streak. The pair continues to inch higher toward 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday and the near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup of recovery momentum.
The renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness helped EURUSD stage a decisive rebound midweek. In the absence of high-tier data releases, retreating US Treasury bond yields weighed on the USD.
Later in the session, the US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Investors expect the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to rise to 215,000 in the week ending April 13 from 211,000. A reading close to 220,000 could put additional weight on the USD’s shoulders.
In the meantime, US stock index futures trade in positive territory in the European session. A bullish opening in Wall Street could help EUR/USD preserve its recovery momentum.
Markets remain optimistic about an avoidance of a deepening Iran-Israel conflict, with the UK, the EU and the US looking to widen sanctions against Iran.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD is consolidating its recovery below 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday. The US Dollar holds its corrective decline amid improving market mood, despite looming Middle East geopolitical risks. Speeches from ECB and Fed officials remain on tap.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the above 4-hour chart climbed above 50 for the first time in a week and EURUSD closed the last five 4-hour candles about the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a buildup of recovery momentum.
1.0700 (psychological level, static level) aligns as immediate resistance before 1.0720-1.0730 (50-period SMA, static level) and 1.0760 (100-period SMA). On the downside, 1.0660 (static level, former resistance) could be seen as first support ahead of 1.0640 (20-period SMA) and 1.0600 (psychological level, static level).
For the next week, overall, the trend this week is mainly bearish as the price faces strong breakout support at 1.06869. Fibonacci also points to a strong decline at 0.786, as illustrated in the following chart. The downtrend is likely to strengthen further if it is pushed back from this mark by the bears. However, investors still lack motivation to push prices back up. Given the current trend, it would make more sense for the EUR to retest the previous strong breakout zone and consolidate below this level before the downtrend resumes.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05, and going Short at or above 1.0701, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0848.
As of 12:52 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.06721.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, April, 19: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, April, 22: exchange rate 1.073 US Dollars, maximum 1.089, minimum 1.057. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, April, 23: exchange rate 1.071 US Dollars, maximum 1.087, minimum 1.055. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, April, 24: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, April, 25: exchange rate 1.062 US Dollars, maximum 1.078, minimum 1.046. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, April, 26: exchange rate 1.051 US Dollars, maximum 1.067, minimum 1.035. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, April, 29: exchange rate 1.051 US Dollars, maximum 1.067, minimum 1.035. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, April, 30: exchange rate 1.053 US Dollars, maximum 1.069, minimum 1.037. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, May, 1: exchange rate 1.053 US Dollars, maximum 1.069, minimum 1.037.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
