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Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.09323, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0825, and going Short at or above 1.0986, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1050.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0937 high, set this past Monday, and 1.0848 low, set today, Thursday.
So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0889, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0936, for 0.43% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0883, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0916, for 0.3% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0855, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0901, for 0.42% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0849, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0864, for an extra 0.14% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD extended its weekly slide on Wednesday and lost nearly 0.3% on the day. The pair struggles to stage a recovery early Thursday and trades near 1.0850 as investors gear up for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements.
The ECB is forecast to lower key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the October meeting. This decision by itself is unlikely to trigger a market reaction, since it’s already priced in. Hence, investors will pay close attention to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde in the post-meeting press conference, starting at 12:45 GMT.
In case Lagarde downplays the soft inflation readings from the Eurozone and reiterates that they forecast price pressures to strengthen toward the end of the year, markets could see that as a sign that the ECB is unwilling to cut rates again in December. In this scenario, the immediate market reaction could help the Euro find demand. On the other hand, the currency could come under renewed pressure and open the door for another leg lower in EUR/USD if Lagarde puts more emphasis on the worsening economic outlook in the Euro area.
The US economic calendar will feature September Retail Sales and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. A noticeable decline in the number of first-time unemployment benefits could support the US Dollar (USD).
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD stays cautious near 1.0850, as ECB rate decision looms
The currency pair trades with caution near 1.0850 in the European session on Thursday. The pair struggles, despite a steady US Dollar and a positive shift in risk sentiment, as ECB rate cut bets remain a drag on the Euro. ECB policy announcements and President Lagarde’s presser eyed.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 30, suggesting that EURUSD is technically oversold. In case the pair stages a technical correction, 1.0900 (static level, round level) could be seen as first resistance level before 1.0950 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.1000 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.0800 (round level) and 1.0780 (static level, beginning point of the uptrend).
Next week
For next week, looking at the following chart, we can see the currency pair has been in a correction phase. We believe, the price may decline further to the support line and then rebound up to the resistance area, thereby exiting from the pennant and breaking the resistance level. For this reason, my TP (1.0950) is located inside the resistance area.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.09500, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07251, and going Short at or above 1.09501, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11350.
As of 12:50 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08655.
EURUSD insights
Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.
If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, October, 18: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, October, 21: exchange rate 1.082 US Dollars, maximum 1.098, minimum 1.066. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, October, 22: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, October, 23: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063.
EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, October, 24: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, October, 25: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, October, 28: exchange rate 1.076 US Dollars, maximum 1.092, minimum 1.060. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, October, 29: exchange rate 1.076 US Dollars, maximum 1.092, minimum 1.060. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, October, 30: exchange rate 1.071 US Dollars, maximum 1.087, minimum 1.055.
To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
