Forex Forecast: 21 – 25 March 2022

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go short at or above 1.1100, setting a Stop loss at 1.1200, and to go Long at or below 1.1048, setting a Stop loss at 1.0856.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1092 high and 1.09 set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have bought it at 1.0902, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0992, for 0.83% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0928, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1018, for 0.82% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0950, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1046, for 0.88% profit. Today, we could have bought it at 1.1020, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1090, for an extra 0.64% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair extended its advance to 1.1066, a fresh weekly high, holding nearby at the time being. The American Dollar keeps shedding ground in the aftermath of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement, as chief Powell & co. managed to cool down inflation expectations.

The central bank rose its main rate by 25 bps, and the dot-plot hinted at six more hikes in the year. Furthermore, the accompanying statement hinted that they would start reducing their balance sheet as soon as in the next meeting.

Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, without progress towards a diplomatic solution. Financial markets feel the heat, with European indexes trading mixed not far from their opening levels. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde weighed on the mood, as she said that the war could cause the start of new inflationary trends. Quite similar to what the Fed noted on Wednesday.

The macroeconomic calendar so far offered EU inflation data. The February Consumer Price Index was confirmed at 5.9%, above the preliminary estimate of 5.8%. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 11, which decreased to 214K, better than anticipated. February Building Permits were down 1.9%, while Housing Starts in the same period increased by 6.8%. Later in the session, the country will publish February Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

 

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair is nearing a critical Fibonacci resistance level at 1.1070, the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily slide. The daily chart shows that technical indicators have lost their bullish momentum within negative levels, while the 20 SMA heads firmly lower, now around 1.1095.

The bullish potential remains limited, although a break above the Fibonacci resistance may spook sellers and favor a continuation. The near term picture is mildly bullish, as the above 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but they remain well above their midlines.

Additionally, the pair is developing above a bullish 20 SMA, while a bearish 100 SMA is acting as dynamic resistance around the aforementioned daily high.

Support levels are at 1.1000, 1.0965, and 1.0900.

Resistance levels are at 1.1070, 1.1115, and 1.1160.

 For next week, currently the currency pair price is in a sideways range between 1.11325 and 1.083. From the local level, the price is in the countertrend correction, and just broke resistance zone of 1.106. Technical indicators suggest to wait for a false breakout with the price fixing below the level and moving down the trend, having 1.09735 as price target.  So, we would buy it at or below 1.11325, setting a stop loss at 1.12170, and Short it at or above 1.12170, setting a stop loss at 1.09735.

 

As of 16:03 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.11054.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, March, 18: exchange rate 1.1109 Dollars, maximum 1.1276, minimum 1.0942. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, March, 21: exchange rate 1.1121 Dollars, maximum 1.1288, minimum 1.0954. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, March, 22: exchange rate 1.1156 Dollars, maximum 1.1323, minimum 1.0989. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, March, 23: exchange rate 1.1076 Dollars, maximum 1.1242, minimum 1.0910.

 

In 1 week, E Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, March, 24: exchange rate 1.0997 Dollars, maximum 1.1162, minimum 1.0832. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, March, 25: exchange rate 1.1167 Dollars, maximum 1.1335, minimum 1.0999. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, March, 28: exchange rate 1.1215 Dollars, maximum 1.1383, minimum 1.1047. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, March, 29: exchange rate 1.1154 Dollars, maximum 1.1321, minimum 1.0987. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, March, 30: exchange rate 1.0994 Dollars, maximum 1.1159, minimum 1.0829.

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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