Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short on the second leg down at or above 1.10, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1150, and going Long at or below 1.09771, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08337.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0961 high set this past Monday, and 1.0861 low set today, Thursday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0875, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0960, for 0.78% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0898, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0953, for 0.5% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0872, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0934, for 0.57% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0862, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0886, for an extra 0.22% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD broke below 1.0900 during the American session, triggering further losses. The pair reached its lowest level since early July, driven by a stronger US Dollar.

The key driver behind this movement remains the strength of the US Dollar. The DXY is testing July highs near 103.50, supported by higher US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment. The 10-year yield rose to 4.27%, while the 2-year yield is slightly below 5%. US data came in mixed, and on Thursday, Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed report are scheduled.

The FOMC minutes revealed that two members favored keeping rates on hold at the July meeting when the central bank raised rates to 5.25% – 5.50%, the highest since 2001. Some FOMC members expressed concerns about the impact of further tightening. The overall message appears to align with the Fed keeping rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings. The US Dollar resumed its upward trajectory following the minutes.

Despite rising for several consecutive days, the momentum of the US Dollar remains strong. Market sentiment deterioration is also supporting the demand for the Greenback. The continuation of the current scenario could lead to further losses for EURUSD.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD stays pressured below 1.0900 amid dour mood.

The EURUSD pair has fallen for four consecutive days; however, technical indicators on the daily chart suggest further weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 38, indicating a downward bias, but not yet reaching oversold levels. The break below 1.0900 has added downward pressure, and if consolidation continues below this level, the path to the downside appears clear. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) looms as a target at 1.0785.

On the 4-hour chart, the bias remains to the downside. However, the RSI is below 30, which could indicate some consolidation if the Euro remains above 1.0865, the immediate support level. A break below this level would target the 1.0850 area and then potentially test the July low around 1.0830. A recovery above 1.0930 would alleviate the bearish pressure.

For next week, EURUSD is still trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase, in which it is approaching 1.082 support level and resistance zone.

Our technical analysis are suggesting going Short on the second leg down at or above 1.10, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09116, and going Long at or below 1.097, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08.

As of 9:51 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08785.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 18: exchange rate 1.086 US Dollars, maximum 1.102, minimum 1.070. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 21: exchange rate 1.086 US Dollars, maximum 1.102, minimum 1.070. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 22: exchange rate 1.082 US Dollars, maximum 1.098, minimum 1.066. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 23: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 24: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 25: exchange rate 1.081 US Dollars, maximum 1.097, minimum 1.065. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 28: exchange rate 1.076 US Dollars, maximum 1.092, minimum 1.060. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 29: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 30: exchange rate 1.081 US Dollars, maximum 1.097, minimum 1.065.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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