Forex Forecast: 20 – 24 November 2023 for MT4 MT5
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.06977, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05405, and going Short at or above 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0798.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0888 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.0664 low, set last, Monday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0665, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0705, for 0.38% profit. Also, Monday, we could have short it at 1.0705, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0665, for 0.38% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0693, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0887, for 1.81% profit. Also, Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0798, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0693, for an extra 0.98% ROI.
The EURUSD approached the 1.0900 area and turned downwards, correcting from its monthly highs. The slide extended to 1.0830. Despite the daily loss, the bias remains to the upside, supported by negative sentiment around the US Dollar following another US inflation report that solidifies the perspective that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has finished raising interest rates.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.5% in October, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% increase. The annual rate also slowed from 2.2% to 1.3%. The annual Core PPI fell from 2.7% to 2.4%. The data proves that inflation is cooling, alleviating pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates further. Another report showed that Retail Sales fell by 0.1% in October, which was a better reading than the expected 0.3% decline.
Despite showing softer US inflation, the US Dollar rose after the releases, supported by a rebound in US yields. The Greenback corrected higher but still appears vulnerable. On Thursday, economic data from the US includes the weekly Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, and the Philly Fed report.
The retracement in EUR/USD was modest and is seen as a corrective move. The negative sentiment towards the Dollar reflects market expectations that the Fed will not raise rates again. However, US economic performance is still stronger compared to its European peers.
EURUSD is trading on the back foot below 1.0850 in early European trading on Thursday. Markets remain risk-averse, assessing the Fed interest rate expectations, helping the safe-haven US Dollar stay afloat. However, the downside appears limited amid falling US Treasury bond yields. ECB- and Fed-speak is in focus.
After posting the highest daily close in over two months, above the key simple moving averages, the EUR/USD currency pair pulled back modestly, holding above 1.0800. The chart analysis suggests an upward bias, with the following key resistance levels at 1.0900 and 1.0945.
On the 4-hour chart above, technical indicators indicate that the bearish correction could continue.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving south from an overbought level, and Momentum is retracing. Even if the Dollar’s recovery is extended, it would not change the bullish outlook. Immediate support stands at 1.0830, followed by 1.0780. The crucial dynamic support is represented by an upward trendline at 1.0720.
For next week, The EURUSD pair faces resistance below the 1.0900 threshold during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Weaker-than-expected US inflation data exerts some bearish pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and supports the EURUSD pair. The markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve has concluded the hiking cycle this year and expects rate cuts in the early second quarter of 2024. The region between 1.0895 and 1.0900 represents an immediate resistance level for the pair.
The currency pair next barrier is at 1.0933 (high of August 22). Additional resistance is observed at 1.0947 (high of August 30), with the final destination at 1.102 (a round figure and high of August 11). On the flip side, the initial support level is near the psychological round figure of 1.0800. The next contention level will emerge at the November high of 1.0756, followed by 1.0713 and 1.0672.
The market overnight experienced a false breakout of the swing high, which could lead the price to react during the London session, initially gaining liquidity above the Asia high and subsequently pulling back towards the 38% Fibonacci level.
Hence, and for next week, our technical analysis are suggesting going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07, and going Short at or above 1.0816, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09.
As of 1:03 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08424.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 17: exchange rate 1.082 US Dollars, maximum 1.098, minimum 1.066. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 20: exchange rate 1.101 US Dollars, maximum 1.118, minimum 1.084. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 21: exchange rate 1.103 US Dollars, maximum 1.120, minimum 1.086. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 22: exchange rate 1.105 US Dollars, maximum 1.122, minimum 1.088.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 23: exchange rate 1.101 US Dollars, maximum 1.118, minimum 1.084. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 24: exchange rate 1.102 US Dollars, maximum 1.119, minimum 1.085. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 27: exchange rate 1.100 US Dollars, maximum 1.117, minimum 1.084. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 28: exchange rate 1.099 US Dollars, maximum 1.115, minimum 1.083. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 29: exchange rate 1.110 US Dollars, maximum 1.127, minimum 1.093.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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