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Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.09000, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08000, and going Short at or above 1.09010, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09910.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1048 high, set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.0911 low, set this past Monday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0912, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0939, for 0.25% ROI. Also, on Monday, we could have short it at 1.0939, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0912, for 0.25% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0991, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0914, for 0.71% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.0991, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0985, for an extra 0.05% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD gathered bullish momentum and reached its highest level of 2024 near 1.1050 on Wednesday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase and trades slightly above 1.1000 in the European session on Thursday.EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and reached its highest level of 2024 near 1.1050 on Wednesday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase and trades slightly above 1.1000 in the European session on Thursday.
The data from the US showed on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI both rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, as forecast. The risk mood improved following the US inflation figures, making it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to find demand.
In the European morning, US stock index futures trade modestly higher on the day. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and July Retail Sales data on Thursday.
A significant decline in the number of first-time application for unemployment benefits, with a reading below 220,000, could help the US Dollar (USD) gather strength with the immediate reaction. Meanwhile, Retail Sales are forecast to rise 0.3% after staying unchanged in June. A negative print could revive fears over an economic downturn in the US and hurt the USD, even if the Jobless Claims data comes in better than forecast.
Investors will also pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. In case policymakers note that a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut is unlikely in September following the July inflation readings, the USD is likely to stay resilient against its rivals.
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD hovers above 1.1000 ahead of US Retail Sales data.
The currency pair consolidates above 1.1000, within a familiar range in European trading on Thursday. A positive risk tone and a pause in the US Dollar recovery underpin the pair but the upside remains capped, as traders turn cautious ahead of the key US Retail Sales data.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart retreated below 70 after touching 80 on Wednesday, suggesting that the pair’s bullish bias remains intact following a technical correction.
On the downside, 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) aligns as immediate support before 1.0960 (static level), 1.0940 (static level) and 1.0900 (psychological level, static level). In case the pair manages to hold above 1.1000, buyers could look to retain control.
In this scenario, 1.1050-1.1060 (static level) could be seen as next resistance before 1.1100 (psychological level, static level).
For next week, The price of the EURUSD is still inside this symmetrical triangle, suggesting a short position, in the short-run. From my previous EURUSD analyses, the currency pair is in a long-term downtrend, so we want to trade with the trend and speculate on price decreases. We believe we will hit 1:1 parity with USD soon (1.00 EURUSD price).
From the Elliott Wave perspective, symmetrical triangles that occur at the top of a trend are usually a nest (1-2-1-2) structure. This is the start of a downtrend, and once the 3rd wave triggers, we may experience a massive fall, in the currency pair!
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.07999, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06775, and going Short at or above 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11.
As of 12:02 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.10109.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 16: exchange rate 1.104 US Dollars, maximum 1.121, minimum 1.087. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 19: exchange rate 1.110 US Dollars, maximum 1.127, minimum 1.093. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 20: exchange rate 1.112 US Dollars, maximum 1.129, minimum 1.095. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 21: exchange rate 1.112 US Dollars, maximum 1.129, minimum 1.095.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 16: exchange rate 1.104 US Dollars, maximum 1.121, minimum 1.087. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 19: exchange rate 1.110 US Dollars, maximum 1.127, minimum 1.093. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 20: exchange rate 1.112 US Dollars, maximum 1.129, minimum 1.095. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 21: exchange rate 1.112 US Dollars, maximum 1.129, minimum 1.095.
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Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
