Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08700 setting a Stop Loss at 1.07995, and going Short at or above 1.08710, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0852 high, set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.0719 low, set this past Tuesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0733, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0796, for 0.59% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0720, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0774, for 0.5% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0735, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0851, for 1.08% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0801, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0816, for an extra 0.14% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

EURUSD turned north in the early American session on Wednesday and climbed above 1.0850. Although the pair erased a portion of its gains, it closed the day in positive territory and snapped a three-day losing streak. Early Thursday, EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.0800.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 3.3% on a yearly basis in May from 3.4% in April. The annual core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.4%, below the market expectation of 3.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged, while the core CPI was up 0.2%. The US Dollar (USD) came under heavy selling pressure following the inflation data and allowed EURUSD to push higher.

In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve (Fed) said that it left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% following the June meeting, as widely anticipated. The revised Summary of Economic Projections, the so called dot-plot published alongside the policy statement, showed that 4 of 19 officials saw no rate cuts in 2024, 7 projected a 25 basis points (bps) rate reduction, while 8 marked down a 50 bps cut in the policy rate.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone on the timing of the policy pivot, reiterating the data-dependent approach. The USD found a foothold in the Fed aftermath and limited EURUSD’s upside.

On Thursday, the BLS will release Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May. The annual PPI is forecast to rise 2.5% following the 2.2% increase recorded in April. In case this data comes in below the market expectation, the USD could have a hard time finding demand and help EURUSD regain its traction.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD hovers around 1.0800 ahead of US data.

The currency pair is holding steady near 1.0800 in the European trading hours on Thursday. The pair trades with caution amid a risk-off market mood and broad US Dollar recovery. Focus shifts to US PPI data.

Key pivot area for EURUSD seems to have formed at 1.0790-1.0800, where the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest uptrend meets the 100-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

In case the pair continues to use that level as support, technical buyers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.0840-1.0850 (100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.0900 (psychological level, static level) could be seen as next resistances.

If 1.0790-1.0800 support fails, sellers could take action and drag EUR/USD lower toward 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0730 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

For next week, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.0850 setting a Stop Loss at 1.0712, and going Short at or above 1.0851, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0971.

As of 11:46 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08011.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 14: exchange rate 1.088 US Dollars, maximum 1.104, minimum 1.072. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 17: exchange rate 1.085 US Dollars, maximum 1.101, minimum 1.069. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 18: exchange rate 1.081 US Dollars, maximum 1.097, minimum 1.065. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 19: exchange rate 1.072 US Dollars, maximum 1.088, minimum 1.056.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 20: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 21: exchange rate 1.073 US Dollars, maximum 1.089, minimum 1.057. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, June, 24: exchange rate 1.071 US Dollars, maximum 1.087, minimum 1.055. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, June, 25: exchange rate 1.076 US Dollars, maximum 1.092, minimum 1.060. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, June, 26: exchange rate 1.078 US Dollars, maximum 1.094, minimum 1.062.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.