Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.1059, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09, and going Short at or above 1.1060, setting a Stop Loss at 1.12.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1092 high set this past Monday, and 1.1002 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.1035, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1091, for 0.51% profit. Also on Monday, we could have short it at 1.1091, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1035, for 0.51% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1016, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1049, for 0.3% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1003, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1054, for 0.46% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1006, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1023, for an extra 0.15% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair extended its weekly decline to 1.1001 on Wednesday, bouncing just modestly ahead of the close. The pair is heading into the Asian opening trading around the 1.1020 level, with an overall bearish stance.

Financial markets turned risk-averse following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI), as the figures weighed down the odds for a Federal Reserve (Fed) 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut when it meets next week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI rose by 2.5% on a yearly basis in August, easing from 2.9% in July, while the core annual figure printed at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Additionally, the core monthly index increased by 0.3%, worse than the 0.2% advance anticipated.

Speculative interest hoped for further easing in price pressures and a more aggressive Fed. As a result, stock markets plunged, with Wall Street posting sharp losses after the opening. Nevertheless, the three major indexes recovered ahead of the close and trimmed most of their early losses. The US Dollar, however, retained a good bunch of its gains across the FX board.

Investors will now focus on the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB will announce its decision on monetary policy early on Thursday, and is widely anticipated to cut the three main interest rates by 25 bps each. Policymakers will act not only because of easing price pressures but also because of mounting concerns about a potential recession in the Eurozone. Of course, officials will not put that in words, but they will repeat that they will remain vigilant and data-dependent.

For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD keeps range above 1.1000 ahead of ECB policy announcements.

The currency pair is gyrating in a tight range above 1.1000 in European trading on Thursday. Traders assess the latest US CPI inflation data, bracing for the ECB policy announcements amid a positive risk sentiment and sustained US Dollar strength.

The daily chart for the EURUSD pair shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside. The pair further extended its slump below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 SMA is losing steam a few pips above a flat 200 SMA, both far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have pared their slides but remain well into negative levels, far from suggesting downward exhaustion.

Technical readings in the above 4-hour chart support another leg south. The 20 SMA gains downward traction below a flat 100 SMA, while EURUSD bounced modestly after testing the 200 SMA. Finally, technical indicators have bounced from near oversold readings but remain below their midlines and lack directional strength. A break through the 1.1000 level will likely force buyers to give up and encourage sellers, with the pair then aiming to retest the 1.0900 threshold.

Support levels are at 1.0990, 1.0950, and 1.0910.

Resistance levels are at 1.1050, 1.1090, and 1.1140.

For next week, we believe the risk remains skewed to the downside.

Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.1049, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09, and going Short at or above 1.1050, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1189.

As of 12:59 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.1014.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow

EURUSD insights

Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.

If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.

EUR to USD Forecast for Today

The EUR to USD forecast for today is currently predicting the EURUSD exchange rate to drop to 1.098445 in the next 24 hours, representing a -0.27% decrease.

EUR to USD Forecast for Tomorrow

The EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow is currently predicting the EURUSD exchange rate to drop to 1.098315 in the next 24 hours, representing a -0.28% decrease.

EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week

Today’s EUR to USD forecast for next week suggests the EUR to USD rate might fall to 1.098311 in the next 7 days, a -0.28% drop compared to the current rate.

To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!