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Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.0565, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0385, and going Short at or above 1.0566, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07341.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0595 high set this past Monday, and 1.0469 low, set today Thursday.
So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0533, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0594, for 0.58% profit. Also on Monday, we could have short it at 1.0594, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0533, for 0.58% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.05, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0567, for 0.64% profit. Also on Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0567, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.05, for 0.64% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0481, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0539, for 0.55% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0470, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0530, for an extra 0.57% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB’s decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
ECB press conference key highlights
“Growth is losing momentum, firms are holding back investment.”
“Surveys point to fewer jobs being created.”
“Recovery is slower than expected.”
“Exports should support recovery if trade tensions don’t escalate.”
“Risks to growth are tilted to downside.”
“Trade friction could weigh on growth.”
“Wages, profits, geopolitics are among upside risks to inflation.”
“Downside risks to inflation include low confidence, geopolitical stress, low investment.”
“Macroprudential policy remains the first line of defense against the build-up of financial vulnerabilities.”
“No victory yet against inflation.”
“There were some discussion about a 50 bps cut.”
“Observing decline in profit margins.”
“Productivity is more promising.”
“Risk to inflation is now two-sided.”
“I don’t think about market pricing of rate hikes.”
“We have not discussed neutral rate level in this meeting.”
“Protectionism is inflationary in the short term.”
This section below was published at 13:15 GMT to cover the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements and the immediate market reaction.
Against the USD. If Lagarde adopts a more optimistic tone about the economic outlook and highlights the need for patience in further policy easing, EURUSD could gain traction in the near term.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EURUSD:
“Following the modest rebound seen in December, EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index edges higher toward 50 and the pair manages to hold above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).”
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD trims losses with Wall Street’s opening, advances beyond 1.0500.
The currency pair regained its poise with Wall Street’s opening, recovering from a fresh weekly low of 1.0468. The European Central Bank trimmed interest rates as expected, and the United States published discouraging employment and inflation-related data. Markets remain cautious, limiting directional strength.
The EURUSD is stuck around its daily opening and lacks directional strength after the round of macroeconomic headlines. The daily chart shows the currency pair develops below a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing near-term resistance around 1.0530. The 100 and 200 SMAs offer neutral-to-bearish slopes far above the shorter one, maintaining the risk skewed to the downside. Finally, technical indicators fail to clarify what’s next, as the Momentum indicator aims modestly higher at around 100, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere around 39.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, it seems sellers retain control. EUR/USD remains below all its moving averages, with sellers adding around converging 20 and 100 SMAs in the 1.0530 region. Technical indicators, in the meantime, maintain their bearish slopes within negative levels, in line with a lower low ahead.
Support levels are at 1.0460, 1.0410, and 1.0375.
Resistance levels are at 1.0530, 1.0570, and 1.0625.
Next week
For next week, the currency pair price is trying to break $1.0520 level, and we believe it can break it and continue to grow to $1.0720 in channel.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.06, setting a Stop Loss at 1.04, and going Short at or above 1.0601, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0720.
As of 3:50 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.04670.
EURUSD insights
Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.
If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, December, 13: exchange rate 1.047 US Dollars, maximum 1.063, minimum 1.031. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, December, 16: exchange rate 1.045 US Dollars, maximum 1.061, minimum 1.029. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, December, 17: exchange rate 1.044 US Dollars, maximum 1.060, minimum 1.028. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, December, 18: exchange rate 1.042 US Dollars, maximum 1.058, minimum 1.026.
EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, December, 19: exchange rate 1.050 US Dollars, maximum 1.066, minimum 1.034. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, December, 20: exchange rate 1.050 US Dollars, maximum 1.066, minimum 1.034. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, December, 23: exchange rate 1.051 US Dollars, maximum 1.067, minimum 1.035. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, December, 24: exchange rate 1.043 US Dollars, maximum 1.059, minimum 1.027. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, December, 25: exchange rate 1.045 US Dollars, maximum 1.061, minimum 1.029.
To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
