Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08599, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07, and going Short at or above 1.0860, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1025.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0886 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.0720 low, set today, Thursday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0821, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0862, for 0.38% profit. Also, on Monday, we could have short it at 1.0862, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0821, for 0.38%profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0848, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0885, for 0.34% profit. Also, on Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0885, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0848, for 0.34%profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0729, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0867, for 1.29% profit. Also on Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.0867, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0729, for 1.29%profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0721, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0749, for an extra 0.26% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

EURUSD came under heavy bearish pressure and registered its largest one-day loss of 2024 on Wednesday, losing over 1%. The pair holds steady slightly below 1.0750 early Thursday as investors await the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcements.

Stronger-than-forecast US inflation data for March caused investors to refrain from pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in June and provided a boost to the US Dollar (USD).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI both rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. These readings came in above analysts’ estimates and the probability of the Fed holding the policy rate unchanged in June surged beyond 80% from 40% before inflation data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

On Thursday, the ECB is expected to hold key rates unchanged. Several ECB policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde, left the door open to a rate cut in June after the March policy meeting. Although markets are fairly certain that there will be an ECB policy pivot in June, a confirmation could highlight the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB and force EURUSD to stay on the back foot.

In case Lagarde adopts a cautious tone regarding the inflation outlook and casts doubt over a reduction in key rates in June, the Euro could erase a portion of Wednesday’s losses.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD holds below 1.0750 ahead of ECB policy announcements.

The currency pair oscillates in a narrow range below 1.0750 in Thursday’s European session. The pair consolidates hot US CPI data-led losses, as traders refrain from placing fresh bets ahead of the ECB policy announcements, US PPI data and Fed-speak.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 30, pointing to oversold conditions. Investors, however, could ignore this development when reacting to the ECB event.

The 1.0730 (static level) aligns as interim support before 1.0700 (static level). With a break below the latter, EUR/USD could touch a fresh 2024-low and extend its slide toward 1.0660 (static level from November) next.

On the upside, resistances are located at 1.0770 (static level), 1.0800 (static level) and 1.0820 (100-period Simple Moving Average).

For the next week, the currency pair price seems to have broken out of the descending trend-line resistance level, as illustrated in the following chart. However, note that there is no confirmation of the breakout yet. But, if the price breaks out in a bullish fashion, the next level would most likely be 1.0944.

Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.0831, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0745, and going Short at or above 1.0835, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0944.

As of 13:53 pM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07398.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, April, 12: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, April, 15: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, April, 16: exchange rate 1.065 US Dollars, maximum 1.081, minimum 1.049. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, April, 17: exchange rate 1.065 US Dollars, maximum 1.081, minimum 1.049.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, April, 18: exchange rate 1.065 US Dollars, maximum 1.081, minimum 1.049. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, April, 19: exchange rate 1.071 US Dollars, maximum 1.087, minimum 1.055. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, April, 22: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, April, 23: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, April, 24: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053.

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.