Forex Forecast: 14 – 18 March 2022

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go short at or above 1.1100, setting a Stop loss at 1.1200, and to go Long at or below 1.1052, setting a Stop loss at 1.0952.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1121 high set today, Thursday, and 1.0805 set this past Monday. So, Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0952, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0958, for 0.05% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0952, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1094, for 1.3% profit. Today, we could have bought it at 1.0952, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1119, for 1.52% profit, and short the currency pair at 1.1119, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0879, for an extra 2.16% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair hit a weekly high of 1.1120 following the release of the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. As widely anticipated, policymakers decided to leave rates unchanged but introduced a hawkish twist in the Asset Purchase Program that will now end in the third quarter of this year. The APP  will amount to 40 billion Euros in April, 30 billion Euros in May and 20 billion Euros in June.

Policymakers noted that if the inflation outlook changed and financing circumstances became incompatible with progress towards the 2% inflation target, they would alter the net asset purchase schedule in terms of magnitude and/or length.

The pair retreated modestly from the level ahead of US inflation data. The country reported that in February, the Consumer Price Index hit a multi-decade high of 7.9% YoY as expected. The core reading surged to 6.4%, also as anticipated by the market.  The greenback came back under selling pressure with the headline.

At the time being, ECB President Christine Lagarde is giving a press conference, which started with Lagarde expressing concerns about the Russian-Ukrainian war and its impact on the economy and inflation.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD erases ECB-inspired gains, closes in on 1.1000. EURUSD rose sharply after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will end the Asset Purchase Program (APP) in the third quarter. The pair, however, reversed its direction and started to decline toward 1.1000 on ECB President Lagarde’s cautious comments.

 

The EURUSD pair is up for a third consecutive day, with the pair posting higher highs ever since bottoming at 1.0855 on Monday. The daily chart shows that despite the pair remaining around the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily slump, the recovery is losing momentum. Technical indicators have lost their bullish slopes well into negative territory, while the 20 SMA keeps heading firmly lower above the current level and below the longer ones.

The pair remains bullish in the near term and according to technical readings in the 4-hour chart. Technical indicators resumed their advances near overbought readings, while EURUSD keeps developing above a bullish 20 SMA. The next Fibonacci resistance level comes at 1.1150, the 50% retracement of the aforementioned decline. The pair can recover its bullish potential on a clear break above it.

Support levels are at 1.1055, 1.1020, and 1.0970.

Resistance levels are at 1.1110, 1.1150, and 1.1195.

 For next week, in today’s trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.10 zone, once received any bearish confirmation. As illustrated in the following chart, our technical analysis is suggesting to go short at or above 1.1100, setting a Stop loss at 1.1200, and to go Long at or below 1.1048, setting a Stop loss at 1.0856.

 

As of 17:01 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.1061.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, March, 11: exchange rate 1.1245 Dollars, maximum 1.1414, minimum 1.1076. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, March, 14: exchange rate 1.1294 Dollars, maximum 1.1463, minimum 1.1125. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, March, 15: exchange rate 1.1233 Dollars, maximum 1.1401, minimum 1.1065. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, March, 16: exchange rate 1.1072 Dollars, maximum 1.1238, minimum 1.0906.

 

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, March, 17: exchange rate 1.1025 Dollars, maximum 1.1190, minimum 1.0860. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, March, 18: exchange rate 1.1021 Dollars, maximum 1.1186, minimum 1.0856. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, March, 21: exchange rate 1.0927 Dollars, maximum 1.1091, minimum 1.0763. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, March, 22: exchange rate 1.0879 Dollars, maximum 1.1042, minimum 1.0716. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, March, 23: exchange rate 1.0949 Dollars, maximum 1.1113, minimum 1.0785.

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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