Forex Forecast: 13 – 17 November 2023 for MT4 MT5
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.06275, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05194, and going Short at or above 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0798.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0757 high, set this past Monday, and 1.0659 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. So, Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.0756, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0715, for 0.38% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0723, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0662, for 0.57% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.0716, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0658, for 0.54% profit. Thursday, we could have short it at 1.0715, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0693, for an extra 0.21% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
Following a bearish start to the day on Wednesday, EURUSD staged a rebound in the American session and closed flat. The pair holds steady at around 1.0700 early Thursday. Later in the day, the US economic docket will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. More importantly, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the policy outlook.
In the absence of high-tier data releases and fundamental drivers, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to build on its weekly recovery gains. As the benchmark 10-year US yield lost more than 1% and declined to 4.5%, the USD Index retreated toward 105.50.
The modest rebound seen in the 10-year US yield helps the USD hold its ground in the European morning on Thursday.
The number of first time applications for unemployment benefits in the US is forecast to edge higher to 218,000 from 217,000. Although this data by itself is unlikely to trigger the next directional action in the pair, the immediate reaction could impact the USD’s valuation. A reading close to 200,000 could help the USD find demand, while a disappointing reading above 220,000 could hurt the currency.
In the late American session, Chairman Powell will participate at an International Monetary Fund (IMF) panel titled ‘Monetary policy challenges in a global economy.’ Markets are still pricing in a 90% probability that the Fed will stand pat on policy in December. If Powell notes that they could tighten the policy further, citing strong economic activity and sticky inflation, the USD could gather strength and force EUR/USD to turn south.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD stays weak below 1.0700 ahead of Powell.
The currency pair is back below 1.0700, under renewed selling pressure in the European trading on Thursday. The pair is failing to find any inspiration, despite a calm market mood, Attention turns toward speeches from ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell.
EURUSD was last seen trading within a touching distance of 1.0700, where the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the latest downtrend is located. Just above that level, the upper limit of the ascending channel forms next resistance at 1.0720 ahead of 1.0750 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
On the downside, supports are located at 1.0670 (mid-point of the ascending channel), 1.0640 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0620 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the above 4-hour chart, lower limit of the ascending channel).
For next week, the currency pair resumed the downtrend after testing the resistance of the ascending channel at 1.0760 and rebounded from it, heading towards a possible visit to support this channel during the coming sessions, so that the bearish bias is likely for today according to the rules of trading within the price channels.
Therefore, we expect to witness further decline in the immediate term, but on the condition of stability below the resistance area at 1.0686 – 1.0700, targeting the levels of 1.0664 and then 1.0632 mainly, noting that breaching and stability above 1.0700 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to conduct a further upward correction.
The expect range trading for today, it will be between the resistance line 1.0760 and support line 1.0664.
Hence, and for next week, our technical analysis are suggesting going Long at or below 1.06977, setting a Stop Loss at 1.05405, and going Short at or above 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0798.
As of 11:06 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.06882.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 10: exchange rate 1.072 US Dollars, maximum 1.088, minimum 1.056. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 13: exchange rate 1.070 US Dollars, maximum 1.086, minimum 1.054. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 14: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 15: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 16: exchange rate 1.085 US Dollars, maximum 1.101, minimum 1.069. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 17: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 20: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 21: exchange rate 1.085 US Dollars, maximum 1.101, minimum 1.069. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 22: exchange rate 1.085 US Dollars, maximum 1.101, minimum 1.069.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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