Forex Forecast: 13 – 17 June 2022

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.0750, setting a Stop loss at 1.06, and Short it above 1.0750, setting a Stop loss at 1.09.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0774 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.0652 low, set this past Tuesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0685, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0751, for 0.62% profit. Also Monday, we could have Short it at  1.0751, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0685, for 0.62% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0654, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0713, for 0.55% profit. Wednesday, we could have Short it at 1.0747, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0673, for 0.55% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have Short it at 1.0772, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0691, for 0.76% profit. Also, today we could have bought it at 1.0691, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0772, for an extra 0.76% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair trades with modest gains in the 1.0760 price zone, volatile in the middle of the European Central Bank monetary policy decision. The central bank has maintained rates on hold, as expected while anticipating a 25 bps hike in July. The pair fell to 1.0687 but quickly recovered from the level, despite policymakers upwardly reviewing inflation figures.

Annual inflation is now seen at 6.8% for this year, then decreasing to 3.5% in 2023 and to 2.1% in 2024. Growth has been downwardly revised to 2.8% in 2022 and to 2.1% for the next two years. Additionally, another rate hike is planned for September, and the scale of the increment would depend on the medium-term inflation outlook.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is giving a speech, which could spur more volatility around the pair, particularly within the Q&A. In the meantime, the US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 3, which were up to 229K, worse than anticipated.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD retreats from 10-day highs, trades below 1.0750, losing its traction, after having advanced toward 1.0800 earlier in the session. With ECB President Lagarde refraining from committing to a 50 bps rate hike in September, the shared currency is struggling to preserve its strength and allowing the pair to edge lower.

 

The EURUSD pair trades around the 50% retracement of its latest daily slump at 1.0770, also near the May high at 1.0780. According to the daily chart, the risk is now skewed to the upside.

Technical indicators have turned higher within positive levels, reflecting increased buying interest. At the same time, the 20 SMA maintains its bullish slope below the current level, approaching the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned decline at 1.0665.

The above 4-hour chart shows that the bullish momentum picked up, as technical indicators head firmly north within positive levels and at their highest for this week. The 100 SMA keeps advancing below the current level while the pair rallies above a flat 20 SMA. The pair has room to extend its gains once above the 1.0780 region, aiming then for the next Fibonacci resistance at 1.0860.

Support levels are at 1.0710, 1.0665, and 1.0620.

Resistance levels ar at 1.0780, 1.0815, and 1.0860.

 For next week, The EURUSD price, after a false breakout of strong resistance is consolidating under the resistance zone. The global trend remains down. So, most likely the currency pair price should drop from the current level 1.07. My goal is to support 1.0633. Our technical analysis are suggesting a new support of 1.0633. Hence, we would go Short at or above 1.065, setting a Stop loss at 1.08, and go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.07, setting a Stop loss at 1.0332.

 

As of 14:35 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.06935.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 10: exchange rate 1.0729 Dollars, maximum 1.0890, minimum 1.0568. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 13: exchange rate 1.0741 Dollars, maximum 1.0902, minimum 1.0580. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 14: exchange rate 1.0718 Dollars, maximum 1.0879, minimum 1.0557. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 15: exchange rate 1.0686 Dollars, maximum 1.0846, minimum 1.0526.

 

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 16: exchange rate 1.0782 Dollars, maximum 1.0944, minimum 1.0620. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 17: exchange rate 1.0699 Dollars, maximum 1.0859, minimum 1.0539. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, June, 20: exchange rate 1.0699 Dollars, maximum 1.0859, minimum 1.0539. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, June, 21: exchange rate 1.0699 Dollars, maximum 1.0859, minimum 1.0539. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, June, 22: exchange rate 1.0878 Dollars, maximum 1.1041, minimum 1.0715.

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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