Forex Forecast: 13 – 17 February 2023
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.09851, setting a stop loss at 1.10918, and going Long at or below 1.08 setting a stop loss at 1.06703.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0799 high set this past Monday, and 1.0667 low set this past Tuesday. So Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0711, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0801 for 0.84% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0669, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0766, for 0.91% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at $1.0712, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0759, for 044% profit. Today, we could have bought it at $1.0712, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0776, for an extra 0.6% ROI.
EURUSD has gathered recovery momentum and climbed above 1.0750 early Thursday after having fluctuated in tight ranges on Tuesday and Wednesday. The positive shift witnessed in market mood weighs on the US Dollar and helps the pair stretch higher. In the absence of high-impact data releases, the risk perception could continue to drive the pair’s action in the second half of the day.
Earlier in the day, the data from Germany revealed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined to 9.2% on a yearly basis in January from 9.6% in December. This reading came in much lower than the market expectation of 10% but the negative impact of this data on the Euro remained short-lived.
With major European equity indexes opening decisively higher on Thursday, EURUSD started to push higher. At the time of press, Germany’s DAX 30 and the Euro Stoxx 50 indexes both were up more than 1% on the day. Additionally, US stock index futures are rising between 0.7% and 1%, confirming the risk-positive market atmosphere.
The US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims figures later in the day. Investors are, however, unlikely to pay attention to this data. The European Commission will also publish the Economic Growth Forecasts. A significant downward revision to 2023 inflation projection, which stood at 6.1% in November’s forecast, could hurt the Euro and vice versa.
In case Wall Street’s main indexes open sharply higher and preserve the bullish momentum in the American session, the US Dollar is likely to have a difficult time keeping its footing. On the other hand, EUR/USD’s upside could remain capped if safe-haven flows return in the second half of the day.
EURUSD extends rebound toward 1.0800 on broad US Dollar weakness, while preserving its bullish momentum and extended its daily rally toward 1.0800, on Thursday. The positive shift witnessed in risk sentiment is weighing on the US Dollar and providing a boost to the pair ahead of mid-tier data releases from the US.
EURUSD trades within a touching distance of the 1.0760/70 resistance area, where the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart align.
Once the pair clears that area and starts using it as support, it could target 1.0800 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0825 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).
On the downside, 1.0730 (20-period SMA) acts as interim support, before 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.0645 (static level).
For next week, EURUSD seems to have reached a good support zone. On the other hand, we expect a drop in the DXY. We believe the currency pair may reach at least 1.12, range with some fluctuation in this area.
Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Long on the EURUSD at or below 1.08, setting a stop loss at 1.05484, and going Short at or below 1.10391, setting a stop loss at 1.11903.
As of 12:31 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07699.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, February, 10: exchange rate 1.0701 Dollars, maximum 1.0862, minimum 1.0540. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, February, 13: exchange rate 1.0703 Dollars, maximum 1.0864, minimum 1.0542. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, February, 14: exchange rate 1.0638 Dollars, maximum 1.0798, minimum 1.0478. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, February, 15: exchange rate 1.0525 Dollars, maximum 1.0683, minimum 1.0367.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, February, 16: exchange rate 1.0446 Dollars, maximum 1.0603, minimum 1.0289. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, February, 17: exchange rate 1.0514 Dollars, maximum 1.0672, minimum 1.0356. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, February, 20: exchange rate 1.0517 Dollars, maximum 1.0675, minimum 1.0359. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, February, 21: exchange rate 1.0518 Dollars, maximum 1.0676, minimum 1.0360. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, February, 22: exchange rate 1.0516 Dollars, maximum 1.0674, minimum 1.0358.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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