Stay ahead in the Forex market with Forex Forecast for August 2024. Our weekly analysis provides traders with critical insights to make informed decisions. Explore our Forex Trading Strategies to enhance your trading skills at MT4 and MT5 trading platforms.

Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08176, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0725, and going Short at or above 1.08225, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0897.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1008 high, and 1.0892 low, set this past Monday. So, On Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.0891, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.08225, for 0.63% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

On Wednesday, the EURUSD met further selling interest, adding to Tuesday’s pullback and revisiting the key 1.0900 neighborhood on the back of the continuation of the US Dollar’s (USD) weekly comeback and a generally positive tone in global stock markets.

Regarding the Greenback, the USD Index (DXY) rose further north of the 103.00 mark after a steep drop to the 102.00 region on Monday. This rebound was supported by an extra depreciation in the Japanese yen and another positive day in US yields across the board.

Adding to the upbeat sentiment for the Greenback, concerns over an inter-meeting rate cut by the Fed evaporated, helped at the same time by recent comments from Fed rate-setters A. Goolsbee and M. Daly, who suggested on Tuesday that markets might have overinterpreted recent US labour market data, ruling out a recession but hinting at potential rate reductions to avoid such an outcome.

In the German money market, 10-year bund yields extended their weekly bounce and confronted the 2.30% region, in line with the trend in global yields.

Still around the Dollar and the Fed, markets now see an increased probability of a 50 bps rate cut in September. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is nearly a 65% chance of this move next month.

If the Fed implements more significant rate cuts, the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB could narrow in the medium term, which may support further gains in EUR/USD.

In the longer run, however, the US economy is expected to outperform its European counterpart, suggesting that any weakness in the Greenback may be temporary.

For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD rises toward 1.0950 on softer US Dollar.

The currency pair rebounds to near 1.0950, snapping a two-day losing streak on Thursday. Broad US Dollar weakness provides some support to the pair. Nonetheless, the risk-off sentiment could limit EURUSD’s upside amid escalating geopolitical risks. US data eyed.

Further north, EURUSD is expected to dispute the August top of 1.1008 (August 5), ahead of the December 2023 peak of 1.1139 (December 28).

On the downside, the pair’s next target is the 200-day SMA at 1.0830, prior to the weekly low of 1.0777 (August 1) and the June low of 1.0666 (June 26), all of which occurred before the May low of 1.0649 (May 1).

Looking at the big picture, the pair’s positive bias should hold if it remains above the key 200-day SMA in a sustained manner.

So far, the above four-hour chart shows some consolidative action. The initial resistance level is at 1.1008 ahead of 1.1132. On the other hand, immediate contention is at 1.0903 ahead of the 200-SMA of 1.0828, and 1.0777. The relative strength index (RSI) gyrated around 55.

KeySoft Forecast for 12 – 16 August 2024: For next week, the currency pair is currently experiencing a pullback from the psychological level at 1.1000.

On the daily timeframe, the market successfully broke and closed above the July high, which is a bullish signal.

However, on the 1H timeframe, the price has dropped below the July high, introducing some caution.

If the market continues to drop, it may lead to a period of consolidation. Given the strong bullish momentum, we are looking for a buying opportunity around the support level of 1.09000.

This could be confirmed by rejection candles, such as long-tailed bars or engulfing candles, indicating a potential reversal and an entrance for long positions.

The resistance zone is set at 1.09910.

Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.09000, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08000, and going Short at or above 1.09010, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09910.

As of 11:24 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.09264.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 9: exchange rate 1.092 US Dollars, maximum 1.108, minimum 1.076. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 12: exchange rate 1.090 US Dollars, maximum 1.106, minimum 1.074. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 13: exchange rate 1.094 US Dollars, maximum 1.110, minimum 1.078. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 14: exchange rate 1.106 US Dollars, maximum 1.123, minimum 1.089.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 15: exchange rate 1.102 US Dollars, maximum 1.119, minimum 1.085. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 16: exchange rate 1.103 US Dollars, maximum 1.120, minimum 1.086. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 19: exchange rate 1.102 US Dollars, maximum 1.119, minimum 1.085. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 20: exchange rate 1.099 US Dollars, maximum 1.115, minimum 1.083. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 21: exchange rate 1.100 US Dollars, maximum 1.117, minimum 1.084.

To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!