Forex Forecast: 11 – 15 September 2023 for MT4 MT5
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.09, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10383, and going Long at or below 1.08832, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06370.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.081 high set this past Monday, and 1.0703 low set yesterday, Wednesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0772, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0809, for 0.34% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0707, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0798, for 0.85% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0704, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0748, for 0.41% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.071, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0731, for an extra 0.2% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD printed a fresh three-month low but remained above 1.0700. US economic data and risk aversion continue to support the Greenback across the board.
Data from the Eurozone showed a significant decline in German Factory Orders in July, down by 11.7%, and a 0.2% decline in Eurozone Retail Sales in the same month. These figures raise doubts about the next steps of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will have its Governing Council meeting next week.
Despite these numbers, the Euro outperformed the Pound and the Swiss Franc. On Thursday, Eurostat will release Q2 employment and GDP data, but since these numbers will be revisions, the impact is expected to be limited.
In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations and boosted the Greenback. After the data, the EURUSD bottomed at 1.0702 and then trimmed losses, rising to 1.0730. The economic performance of the US remains a key factor behind the Dollar’s strength, aided by risk aversion. On Thursday, Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Cost data are due in the US.
Technical Analysis
The main trend in EURUSD remains downward and is still under pressure. The key support level is at 1.0700, and a break below it could trigger further losses, with the next target being the June low at 1.0660.
The price remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is currently at 1.0825.
On the 4-hour chart, the bias is clearly to the downside. However, the indicators are not showing strong conviction at the moment, suggesting some consolidation ahead of the Asian session. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0760, which is a horizontal level and the 20-period SMA. If price manages to move above that, attention would turn to 1.0800.
For next week, and assuming that the price is completing the impulse wave 3. We believe the nearest target reaching 100% Fibonacci extension level is 1.06496.
Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09258, and going Long at or below 1.07693, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06496.
As of 10:02 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07101.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 8: exchange rate 1.073 US Dollars, maximum 1.089, minimum 1.057. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 11: exchange rate 1.066 US Dollars, maximum 1.082, minimum 1.050. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 12: exchange rate 1.068 US Dollars, maximum 1.084, minimum 1.052. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 13: exchange rate 1.061 US Dollars, maximum 1.077, minimum 1.045.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, September, 14: exchange rate 1.053 US Dollars, maximum 1.069, minimum 1.037. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 15: exchange rate 1.058 US Dollars, maximum 1.074, minimum 1.042. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 18: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, September, 19: exchange rate 1.066 US Dollars, maximum 1.082, minimum 1.050. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, September, 20: exchange rate 1.064 US Dollars, maximum 1.080, minimum 1.048.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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