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Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.09508, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07713, and going Short at or above 1.09509, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11551.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0937 high and 1.0681 low, both set yesterday, Wednesday.
So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0858, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0913, for 0.51% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0872, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0935, for 0.58% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.07713, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0936, for an extra 1.53% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD faced a wave of selling pressure on Wednesday, retreating to new multi-month lows in the 1.0685-1.0680 band as market participants continued to assess the (landslide?) victory of Republican Donald Trump at Tuesday’s US election and the likelihood of a “Red Sweep.”
Notably, the pair broke below the 200-day moving average near 1.0870 in quite a convincing fashion, leaving the door open to further weakness along the way.
The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, rebounded markedly and reclaimed the 105.00 barrier and beyond when tracked by the Dollar Index (DXY), keeping the risk-related space under strong downside pressure. The intense upside impulse in the Greenback came in tandem with a strong rebound in US yields across various maturity periods vs. a decent drop in German 10-year bund yields.
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut on Thursday in light of softening inflation and a cooling labour market. Over in Europe, the ECB recently lowered its deposit rate to 3.25% on October 17, although ECB officials remained cautious about further changes, preferring to wait on incoming economic data.
With both the Fed and ECB approaching critical decision points, the EURUSD’s direction will likely hinge on broader economic trends, although a Trump’s win suggests the most likely implementation of tariffs on European and Chinese goods as well as a looser fiscal policy, all paving the way for the resurgence of inflationary pressures and the consequent pause of the ongoing Fed’s easing cycle.
Also supporting a firmer US Dollar, the US economy’s current strength compared to the eurozone suggests that the Greenback could stay strong in the short term.
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD stays firm near 1.0750 amid US Dollar pullback.
The currency pair holds higher ground near 1.0750 in the European session on Thursday. The pair finds support from a broad US Dollar retreat, as traders unwind their Trump win-inspired USD longs ahead of all-important Fed policy announcements.
Extra losses might prompt the EURUSD to revisit the November low of 1.082 (November 6), ahead of the June low of 1.0666 (June 26).
On the upside, the November high of 1.0925 (November 5) turns up as the initial hurdle prior to the preliminary 55-day SMA of 1.1000 and the 2024 peak of 1.1214 (September 25).
Meanwhile, further weakness remains on the cards as long as the EURUSD maintains its trade below the 200-day SMA at 1.0869.
The above four-hour chart shows a sudden resumption of the selling pressure. That said, initial support comes at 1.0682, seconded by 1.0666 and 1.0649. The relative strength index (RSI) tumbled to around 31.
Next week
For next week, in the following 6 hour chart for the EURUSD, as previously expected we are getting a normal bounce off the fresh demand zone at 0800 currently closing on heavy overhead mirror s/r resistance. This setup falls in-line with my strategic outlook for the currency pair, which is targeting 0500.
Key mirror S/R detected at 0925/0945, most likely further upside is very limited in the EURUSD, so we are expecting sell-side pressure and reversal from the key s/r zone. Bears most likely will target fresh demand zone near 0700.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0675, and going Short at or above 1.0825, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1051.
As of 11:36 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07587.
EURUSD insights
Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.
If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 8: exchange rate 1.053 US Dollars, maximum 1.069, minimum 1.037. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 11: exchange rate 1.058 US Dollars, maximum 1.074, minimum 1.042. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 12: exchange rate 1.062 US Dollars, maximum 1.078, minimum 1.046. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 13: exchange rate 1.057 US Dollars, maximum 1.073, minimum 1.041.
EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 14: exchange rate 1.060 US Dollars, maximum 1.076, minimum 1.044. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 15: exchange rate 1.064 US Dollars, maximum 1.080, minimum 1.048. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 18: exchange rate 1.065 US Dollars, maximum 1.081, minimum 1.049. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 19: exchange rate 1.066 US Dollars, maximum 1.082, minimum 1.050. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 20: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047.
To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
