Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.09, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1032, and going Long at or below 1.0930, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0840.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0896 high, set this past Monday, and 1.0755 low set today, Thursday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.084, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0895, for 0.51% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.084, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0847, for an extra 0.06% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

EURUSD regained its traction and rose toward 1.0800 after falling to the 1.0750 area during the early hours of the European session on Thursday. Technical buyers could show interest in case the pair climbs above 1.0820.

Despite the uninspiring employment-related data releases from the US on Wednesday, the US Dollar continued to outperform its rivals as investors opted to stay away from risk-sensitive assets.

Employment in the US private sector rose by 103,000 in November and fell short of the market expectation of 130,000. Additionally, Unit Labor Costs declined by 1.2% in the third quarter, compared to the market expectation for a decrease of 0.9%.

In the meantime, hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda triggered a rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) early Thursday. The sharp decline seen in the USDJPY pair suggested that the JPY captured capital outflows out of the USD. Although this development helped EURUSD edge higher, EURJPY also suffered heavy losses and limited EURUSD’s upside.

Later in the day, the US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. This week’s employment data from the US provided fresh signs of cooling in the labor market. A significant increase in the number of first time applications for unemployment benefits could hurt the USD ahead of Friday’s highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls data.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD recovers toward 1.0800 ahead of EU/US data

EURUSD is picking up fresh bids toward 1.0800 in European trading on Thursday. The US Dollar is tracking the USD/JPY decline, despite a dour mood and rebounding US Treasury bond yields. Focus is on EU GDP revision and US jobs data.

EURUSD holds above 1.0760, where the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart are located. On the upside, 1.0800 (psychological level, static level) aligns as interim resistance before 1.0820 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). A daily close above the latter could attract buyers and open the door for another leg higher toward 1.0850 (static level) and 1.0900 (100-period SMA, 50-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).

On the downside, an extended slide toward 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be witnessed if 1.0760 support fails.

For next week, the currency pair continues to decline, and it has not found any support level to reverse its direction. The nearest support level for this currency pair is at 1.076.

Hence, and for next week, our technical analysis are suggesting going Long at or below 1.085, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07473, and going Short at or above 1.08819, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10166.

As of 11:51 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07754.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, December, 8: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, December, 11: exchange rate 1.070 US Dollars, maximum 1.086, minimum 1.054. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, December, 12: exchange rate 1.065 US Dollars, maximum 1.081, minimum 1.049. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, December, 13: exchange rate 1.064 US Dollars, maximum 1.080, minimum 1.048.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, December, 14: exchange rate 1.056 US Dollars, maximum 1.072, minimum 1.040. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, December, 15: exchange rate 1.054 US Dollars, maximum 1.070, minimum 1.038. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, December, 18: exchange rate 1.058 US Dollars, maximum 1.074, minimum 1.042. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, December, 19: exchange rate 1.059 US Dollars, maximum 1.075, minimum 1.043. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, December, 20: exchange rate 1.062 US Dollars, maximum 1.078, minimum 1.046.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!






Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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