Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.10, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11, and going Long below 1.10, setting a Stop Loss at 1.082.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0934 high set this past Monday, and 1.0833 low, set today. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0871, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0933, for 0.57% profit.  Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0877, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0917, for 0.37% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0852, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0908, for 0.52% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0834, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0855, for an extra 0.68% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD lost ground for the second day in a row, falling below the 20-day simple moving average. A cautious tone across equity markets, higher US yields, and a stronger dollar after the FOMC minutes weighed on the pair which fell toward 1.0850.

Data from the Eurozone showed positive developments regarding inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) Consumer Expectation showed that three-year median inflation expectations remain unchanged at 2.5%. The Producer Price Index declined to a negative annual rate of 1.5%, below the expected -1.3%. On the negative front, the final Eurozone June Services and Composite PMI were revised lower to 52.0 and 49.9, respectively. The Composite dropped below 50 for the first time since December, increasing fears of a recession. The economic figures weighed on the Euro. On Thursday, Germany will report Factory Orders, and Eurozone Retail Sales are due.

The US dollar rose across the board on Wednesday amid cautious markets and despite a softer-than-expected Factory Orders report. The Greenback consolidated gains after the FOMC minutes, which showed some members favored a rate hike at the June meeting. US yields moved further north after the minutes, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.95%, the highest level since mid-March. The focus now turns to US labor market data. On Thursday, the ADP private employment report, Jobless Claims, and JOLTS will be released, and on Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD recovers above 1.0850 ahead of US jobs data.

EURUSD picks up bids to recover ground above 1.0850 in early Europe, as the Euro find support from strong German Factory Orders data. Renewed US Dollar weakness is aiding the rebound in the EURUSD pair from weekly lows, as focus shifts to the US jobs data.

The outlook is turning negative for the Euro after the EURUSD pair dropped below the 20-day SMA. Technical indicators in the daily chart point to the downside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving south and the Momentum breaking under 100.00. Together with the price below the 20-day SMA, this offers a bearish signal. The negative tone will ease if the Euro manages to post a daily close above 1.0915.

Ahead of the Asian session, the EURUSD is testing the 1.0850 area. A break lower would increase the negative pressure, exposing last week’s low at 1.0835; below, a decline to 1.0800 seems likely. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at 1.0890. However, the Euro needs to break a downtrend line currently at 1.0912 in order to negate the current bearish tone. Indicators on the 4-hour chart also favor the downside, with RSI below the midpoint but still not showing oversold conditions.

For next week, we follow up on our last week article reasoning, and now is a good opportunity to go Short on the EURSD.

Our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.8463, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09, and going Long below 1.08138, setting a Stop Loss at 1.068.

As of 9:13 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08556.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, July, 7: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, July, 10: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, July, 11: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, July, 12: exchange rate 1.084 US Dollars, maximum 1.100, minimum 1.068.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, July, 13: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, July, 14: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, July, 17: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, July, 18: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, July, 19: exchange rate 1.074 US Dollars, maximum 1.090, minimum 1.058.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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