EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Short at or above 1.1360, setting a Stop loss at 1.14, and to go Long at or below 1.1330, setting a Stop loss a 1.12.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1381 high, set this past Monday, and 1.1272 low set Tuesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the EURUSD at 1.1281, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1328, for 0.42% profit. Also on Monday, we could have short it the currency pair at 1.1379, Covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1360, for 0.17% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1270, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1321, for 0.45% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1279, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1345, for 0.59% profit.  Today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1283, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1330, for an extra 0.42% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair bounced from an intraday low of 1.1284 and trades at around 1.1300, as demand for the greenback eased, despite the sour market’s mood persists. The US FOMC Meeting Minutes released Wednesday showed that policymakers are willing to accelerate the pace of tapering, sending the greenback up and stocks down. Asian and European shares remained under pressure after the poor performance of Wall Street.

Data wise, Germany published November Factory Orders, which were up 3.7% MoM, beating expectations. The EU Producer Price Index rose a whopping 23.7% YoY in November, while German inflation was up 5.3% YoY in December.

In the US, the November Goods Trade Balance posted a deficit of $-99 billion while weekly unemployment claims rose to 207K in the week ended December 31. The country will publish Factory Orders and the December ISM Services PMI after Wall Street’s opening.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD stays in daily range above 1.1300 after dismal US PMI data, as it continues to trade in a tight channel a little above 1.1300 during the American session on Thursday. The data from Germany showed that the annual HICP edged lower to 5.7% in December as expected. In the US, the ISM Services PMI dropped to 62 from 69.1 and missed the market forecast of 66.9.


The EURUSD pair maintains its neutral-to-bearish stance in the near term. The above 4-hour chart shows that the price is seesawing around congesting moving averages, all of them confined to a tight 15 pips range. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain directionless around their midlines.

The bullish case could gain strength if the pair breaks above 1.1385, an unlikely scenario at the time being, while bears will have better chances on a break below 1.1220, December monthly low.

Support levels are at 1.1260, 1.1220, and 1.1185.

Resistance levels are at 1.1345, 1.1385, and 1.1410.

For next week, EURSUSD price seems to be consolidating close to strong support zone (1.11800-1.12000). Technicals indicate the Euro may reach resistance line in few days. Hence, we should wait until the currency pair break the resistance line, for a trading entry.  In my humble opinion, EUR may retest after that level, before making new uptrend. For next week, our technical analysis is recommending to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.1330, setting a Stop loss at 1.1185, and go Short at or above 1.1410, setting a Stop loss at 1.15.


As of 6:00 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.12957.


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, January, 7: exchange rate 1.1343 Dollars, maximum 1.1513, minimum 1.1173. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, January, 10: exchange rate 1.1331 Dollars, maximum 1.1501, minimum 1.1161. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, January, 11: exchange rate 1.1259 Dollars, maximum 1.1428, minimum 1.1090. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, January, 12: exchange rate 1.1301 Dollars, maximum 1.1471, minimum 1.1131.


In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, January, 13: exchange rate 1.1280 Dollars, maximum 1.1449, minimum 1.1111. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, January, 14: exchange rate 1.1319 Dollars, maximum 1.1489, minimum 1.1149. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, January, 17: exchange rate 1.1303 Dollars, maximum 1.1473, minimum 1.1133. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, January, 18: exchange rate 1.1322 Dollars, maximum 1.1492, minimum 1.1152. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, January, 19: exchange rate 1.1299 Dollars, maximum 1.1468, minimum 1.1130.




Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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