Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08452 setting a Stop Loss at 1.07216, and going Short at or above 1.08526, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09168.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0747 high, set this past Monday, and 1.0683 low, set this past Tuesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.07216, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0746, for 0.23% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.07216, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0744, for an extra 0.21% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD extended its slide and touched its weakest level since early May slightly below 1.0670 on Wednesday. Although the pair edged higher early Thursday, it lost its recovery momentum after meeting resistance near 1.0700.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the final revisions to the first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The BEA is forecast to revise annualized GDP growth to 1.4% in Q1 from 1.3% in the previous estimate.
Other data releases from the US will include Durable Goods Orders for May, which is expected to decline 0.1%, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales for May.
Investors forecast the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to arrive at 236,000 in the week ending June 22, down slightly from 238,000 reported in the previous week. A reading above 240,000 could highlight loosening conditions in the labor market and cause the US Dollar (USD) to weaken against its rivals.
In the second half of the day, investors will pay close attention to the risk perception. US stock index futures were last seen losing about 0.3% on the day. In case safe-haven flows dominate the financial markets ahead of the first US Presidential Debate, the USD could outperform its rivals even if macroeconomic data releases disappoint.
Technical Analysis
The currency pair clings to modest daily recovery gains at around 1.0700 in the second half of the day on Thursday. The US Dollar struggles to find demand and helps the pair edge higher as market focus shifts to key macroeconomic data releases from the US.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the above four-hour edged higher but turned sideways near 40, highlighting a lack of recovery momentum.
Wednesday’s price action confirmed 1.0670, the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend, as strong support. In case EURUSD drops below this level and starts using it as resistance, 1.0600 (psychological level, static level) could be set as the next bearish target.
On the upside, 1.0700 (psychological level, static level) could be seen as interim resistance before 1.0730 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 100-period Simple Moving Average).
For next week, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.07675 setting a Stop Loss at 1.06, and going Short at or above 1.0771, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09768.
As of 1:39 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07167.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 28: exchange rate 1.065 US Dollars, maximum 1.081, minimum 1.049. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, July, 1: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, July, 2: exchange rate 1.067 US Dollars, maximum 1.083, minimum 1.051. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, July, 3: exchange rate 1.066 US Dollars, maximum 1.082, minimum 1.050.
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, July, 4: exchange rate 1.062 US Dollars, maximum 1.078, minimum 1.046. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, July, 5: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, July, 8: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, July, 9: exchange rate 1.066 US Dollars, maximum 1.082, minimum 1.050. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, July, 10: exchange rate 1.063 US Dollars, maximum 1.079, minimum 1.047.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
