Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08036, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06, and going Short at or above 1.09, setting a Stop Loss at 1.105.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1140 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.0993 low set this past Monday. So, on Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.1021, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0994, for 0.25% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1045, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1009, for 0.33% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.1050, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1030, for an extra 0.18 ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD rose further on Wednesday and climbed above 1.1100 for the first time since July, boosted by a weaker US Dollar across the board. The Greenback remains under pressure as US Treasury yields reach fresh lows.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 101.00, its lowest level in five months. At the same time, US yields continue to trend lower as markets anticipate rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next year, while equity prices remain near recent highs. Such a combination continues to weigh on the US Dollar, especially in holiday-thinned trading.

No significant reports were released on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the most important one will be the US weekly Jobless Claims. In Europe, the most relevant report will be Spain’s preliminary inflation figures for December, which will be released on Friday.

As the year 2023 comes to an end, calm waters continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Next week, as markets return to normal functioning, US employment data will be crucial.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD struggles to hold above 1.1100 after US data.

The currency pair reversed its direction and declined to the 1.1100 area after setting a multi-month high of 1.1140 earlier in the day. Despite the uninspiring data releases from the US, the cautious market stance helps the USD find demand and limits the pair’s upside.

The EURUSD confirmed its decisive break above 1.1000 and quickly reached 1.1100. The pair peaked at 1.1122 before pulling back modestly. The bullish momentum remains in place despite overbought readings in the technical indicators across most timeframes. The trend is up and firm, although some consolidation seems overdue.

On the above 4-hour chart, the bias is to the upside. However, technical indications suggest some consolidation may occur ahead of the Asian session, likely between 1.1110 and 1.1080. The 1.1050 zone has become a relevant support area, followed by the 20-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1030. Only below 1.0980, the short-term bias could become neutral. Corrections could be seen as buying opportunities, keeping the downside limited.

For the next week, the EURUSD has been trading in a trading range, the price keeps making new highs, and lower highs, which is a sign of a bullish trend for now. Safe play would be to wait for another push for the trend line and watch what type of price action we get.

Hence, our technical analysis suggests going Long at or below 1.09, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0741, and going Short at or above 1.09232, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1274.

As of 12:47 PM (EST), the EURUSD was trading at 1.10737.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, December 29: exchange rate 1.117 US Dollars, maximum 1.134, minimum 1.100. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, January 1: exchange rate 1.120 US Dollars, maximum 1.137, minimum 1.103. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, January 2: exchange rate 1.121 US Dollars, maximum 1.138, minimum 1.104. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, January 3: exchange rate 1.121 US Dollars, maximum 1.138, minimum 1.104.


In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, January 4: exchange rate 1.127 US Dollars, maximum 1.144, minimum 1.110. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, January 5: exchange rate 1.123 US Dollars, maximum 1.140, minimum 1.106. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, January 8: exchange rate 1.129 US Dollars, maximum 1.146, minimum 1.112. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, January 9: exchange rate 1.132 US Dollars, maximum 1.149, minimum 1.115. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, January 10: exchange rate 1.122 US Dollars, maximum 1.139, minimum 1.105.

Until the next article, wishing all of you a very Happy and Prosperous trading New Year!




Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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