Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.08138, setting a Stop Loss at 1.095, and going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06832.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1011 high set today, Thursday, and 1.0892 low, set this past Tuesday. So, Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.0946 covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0907, for 0.36% profit.  Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0946, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0893, for 0.48% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.095, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0904, for an extra 0.42% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair traded as high as 1.1011 during London trading hours, retreating afterwards but holding on to modest intraday gains at around 1.0990. The Euro is among US Dollar’s strongest rivals, up despite the souring market mood.

The USD fell on Wednesday, following the first day of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. Powell repeated that rate decisions would be made meeting by meeting and left the door open for additional hikes, although clarifying the pace will be moderated.

Stock markets advanced as an immediate reaction to the detriment of the safe-haven Greenback. Equities resumed their slides early on Thursday, but the USD is unable to gain momentum, trading mixed across the FX board.

Data-wise, the Eurozone did not release relevant figures, while the United States (US) published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 16, which rose to 264K. Also, the Q1 Current Account posted a deficit of 219.3 billion, while the May Chicago Fed National Activity Index unexpectedly fell to -0.15. Discouraging US figures add to the poor market sentiment ahead of Wall Street’s opening.

Later in the day, the US will release May Existing Home Sales while the EU will unveil the preliminary estimate of June Consumer Confidence. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell will repeat his testimony before a different congressional commission.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD clings to small daily gains near 1.1000 after US data.

EURUSD continues to trade in a tight daily range at around 1.1000 on Thursday. The risk-averse market atmosphere helps the US Dollar hold its ground despite weak data. There were 264,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, the US Department of Labor reported.

 The EURUSD pair retains its bullish stance, according to the daily chart. The Momentum indicator has extended its advance, maintaining its bullish slope at its highest in over two months, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates near overbought readings without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing above the 100 SMA, both at around 1.0800.

The pair is overbought in the near term, but there are no signs it could change course. In the above 4-hour chart, technical indicators consolidate at extreme levels while moving averages advance well below the current level, with a bullish 20 SMA providing dynamic support at around 1.0945.

Support levels are at 1.0945, 1.0890, and 1.0850.

Resistance levels are at 1.1020, 1.1060, and 1.1100.

For next week, recently, the currency pair price broke resistance level and retested resistance price level. Presently, price trades close to its resistance, but we believe the Euro may make another correction, before bouncing back to $1.10 level.

Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.09821, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1156, and going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06832.

As of 14:57 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.09839.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 23: exchange rate 1.106 US Dollars, maximum 1.123, minimum 1.089. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 26: exchange rate 1.105 US Dollars, maximum 1.122, minimum 1.088. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 27: exchange rate 1.103 US Dollars, maximum 1.120, minimum 1.086. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 28: exchange rate 1.103 US Dollars, maximum 1.120, minimum 1.086.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 29: exchange rate 1.115 US Dollars, maximum 1.132, minimum 1.098. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 30: exchange rate 1.119 US Dollars, maximum 1.136, minimum 1.102. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, July, 3: exchange rate 1.122 US Dollars, maximum 1.139, minimum 1.105. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, July, 4: exchange rate 1.123 US Dollars, maximum 1.140, minimum 1.106. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, July, 5: exchange rate 1.119 US Dollars, maximum 1.136, minimum 1.102.


Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!



Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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