Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10, and going Long at or below 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.055.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0865 high set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.0733 low, set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.0790, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0734, for 0.52% profit.  Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.0824, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0753, for 0.66% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.0864, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0773, for 0.84% profit. Thursday, we could have short it at 1.0846, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0805, for an extra 0.38% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD rose again, posting its highest daily close in a month above 1.0800, despite the US Dollar’s recovery triggered by the hawkish hold from the FOMC. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and upcoming US data, which could become more relevant given Fed Chair Powell’s statement that the July meeting will be a ‘live’ meeting.”

The ECB will have its Governing Council meeting on Thursday. It is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. The key for the Euro will be the language used in the statement and ECB President Lagarde’s comments during the press conference. Probably, she will repeat that they are not done raising rates. If the meeting turns out to be ‘dovish’, with signals of a potential pause, the Euro could suffer.

The US dollar recovered ground after the Fed meeting, during which the central bank kept interest rates unchanged but signaled that it is not done hiking rates. The hawkish tone weighed on Treasury bonds and boosted the greenback. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the July meeting will be a “live meeting”, keeping more rate hikes on the table. According to their projections, most FOMC members see another 50 basis points of tightening by year-end

During the Asian session, markets will continue to digest the Fed’s decision and will likely be the key driver until the ECB meeting. Also, key economic data from the US is due on Thursday, particularly Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Index.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD trades with modest losses above 1.0800 ahead of ECB.

The currency pair is trading under pressure while defending 1.0800, following an early uptick to the 1.0850 region. The pair consolidates losses, as the US Dollar bulls take a breather after the Fed’s hawkish pause-led upswing. All eyes remain on ECB policy announcements.

The EURUSD remains bullish on the daily chart, supported by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and facing a strong hurdle between 1.0860 and the 55-day SMA at 1.0875. If the Euro breaks above, a move toward 1.0900 and beyond seems likely.

The retreat from the new high at 1.0865 could suggest that the EURUSD may consolidate before the next move. Given recent key events and the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday, the market could experience increased volatility and false breakouts.

On the above 4-hour chart, the EURUSD remains bullish, and technical indicators are skewed to the upside. However, if the retreat extends below 1.0815 ahead of the Asian session, a deeper correction seems likely towards 1.0805 initially. Below the crucial level located at 1.0785 (20-SMA and an uptrend line); a break lower would weaken the Euro, exposing the next support at 1.0740.

For next week, Yesterday, Wednesday, the EURUSD pair remained stagnant around the 1.0800 area, due to the indecisive nature of the global markets. Today, Investors are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which is scheduled to be released later in the evening. Although the Fed’s halt in the hiking cycle is expected, there is also an anticipated 25 bps rate increase by the ECB, today.

The Fed’s decision was supported by another decrease in US inflation figures last month. In the pre-FOMC trade, EURUSD traded close to the 1.0800 region, following the consolidative mood in the rest of the global assets.

Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.08138, setting a Stop Loss at 1.095, and going Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06832.

As of 7:57 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08096.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 16: exchange rate 1.088 US Dollars, maximum 1.104, minimum 1.072. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 19: exchange rate 1.091 US Dollars, maximum 1.107, minimum 1.075. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 20: exchange rate 1.092 US Dollars, maximum 1.108, minimum 1.076. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 21: exchange rate 1.088 US Dollars, maximum 1.104, minimum 1.072.


In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 22: exchange rate 1.096 US Dollars, maximum 1.112, minimum 1.080. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 23: exchange rate 1.097 US Dollars, maximum 1.113, minimum 1.081. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, June, 26: exchange rate 1.095 US Dollars, maximum 1.111, minimum 1.079. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, June, 27: exchange rate 1.095 US Dollars, maximum 1.111, minimum 1.079. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, June, 28: exchange rate 1.090 US Dollars, maximum 1.106, minimum 1.074.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!



Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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