Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Short at or above 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10, and going Long at or below 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.055.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0739 high set this past Wednesday, and 1.0667 low, set this past Tuesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0675, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0723, for 0.45% profit.  Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0668, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0732, for 0.6% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0670, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0738, for 0.64% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0702, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0733, for an extra 0.29% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

EURUSD continues to move up and down in its narrow weekly channel on Thursday as investors remain on the sidelines while waiting for the next catalyst. The pair’s technical outlook suggests that buyers could try to remain active.

The positive shift seen in risk sentiment helped EUR/USD hold its ground mid-week. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) unexpected decision to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps), however, triggered a rally in US Treasury bond yields and helped the US Dollar find demand, limiting the pair’s upside.

Early Thursday, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index trades flat and US stock index futures post small gains. The neutral risk mood doesn’t allow the USD to outperform its rivals, forcing EURUSD to extend its sideways grind.

The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be featured in the US economic docket. Although this data by itself is unlikely to influence the market pricing of the next Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, it could trigger a short-lasting reaction. A significant increase, more than 30,000, in the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits could weigh on the USD and vice versa.

In the meantime, the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are still pricing in a nearly 70% probability of the Fed leaving its policy rate unchanged following next week’s highly-anticipated policy meeting.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD extends gains toward 1.0750 despite disappointing EU data.

EURUSD is stretching higher toward 1.0750, as bulls ignore dismal revisions to the Eurozone GDP and jobs data. The pair is benefiting from the ongoing decline in the US Dollar, despite positive US Treasury bond yields and tepid risk sentiment. Focus shifts to the US data.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart rose above 50 and EUR/USD closed the last four-hour candle above the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting the bullish tilt.

Nevertheless, EURUSD is likely to face stiff resistance at 1.0745/50, where the 10-period SMA and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend align. Above that level, 1.0770 (static level) could be seen as interim resistance ahead of 1.0800 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, psychological level).

On the downside, 1.0700 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) forms first support before 1.0670 (upper-limit of the descending regression channel) and 1.0650 (end-point of the latest downtrend).

 For next week, EURUSD price is close to the finish of a bullish wedge pattern. it seems that the market may react bullish ahead of FOMC. Considering that FOMC is not expected to take any further decision than those that already shared it is possible that we may see a decrease
in the value of the USD.

Hence, our technical analysis are suggesting going Short at or above 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10, and going Long at or below 1.07, setting a Stop Loss at 1.055

As of 11:58 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07290.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 9: exchange rate 1.071 US Dollars, maximum 1.087, minimum 1.055. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 12: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 13: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 14: exchange rate 1.064 US Dollars, maximum 1.080, minimum 1.048.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 15: exchange rate 1.071 US Dollars, maximum 1.087, minimum 1.055. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 16: exchange rate 1.067 US Dollars, maximum 1.083, minimum 1.051. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, June, 19: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, June, 20: exchange rate 1.067 US Dollars, maximum 1.083, minimum 1.051. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, June, 21: exchange rate 1.067 US Dollars, maximum 1.083, minimum 1.051.

 

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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