Forex Forecast: 9 – 13 August 2021
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.1840, setting a stop loss at 1.1720, and to Short it at or above 1.1890, setting a stop loss at 1.1960.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1901 high, set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.1829 low, set today. Hence, we could have Short the currency pair on Monday at 1.1892, buying it back on an intraday trading at 1.1860 for 0.29% profit. Tuesday, we could short it 1.1892, buying it back on an intraday trading at 1.1851, for 0.34% profit. Wednesday, we could have gone Long at 1.1855, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1892, for 0.31% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1831, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1855, for an extra 0.2% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD pair hovers around 1.1840, pressured by a cautious market’s mood.
High-yielding currencies suffered from hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve Vice-chair Clarida, who shifted its usual dovish stance to a more hawkish one. The pair bottomed for the day at 1.1822, a fresh weekly low, and hit an intraday high of 1.1856.
Germany published June Factory Orders, which painted a mixed picture as they were up in the month 4.1%, also up 26.2% YoY, the latter below the previous 54.9% and the expected 67.5%.
Meanwhile, the US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 30, which came in at 385K, better than the previous 399K, and slightly above the 384K expected. The country also published the June Trade Balance, posting a deficit of $93.2 billion.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD hovers around 1.1840 after the Fed’s taper talk, easing from daily highs, hit by hawkish comments by the Fed’s Clarida and Daly. The bank is nearing tapering its bond-buying scheme, a move that could happen this year. US jobless claims missed with 385K, a speech from the Fed’s Waller eyed.
The EURUSD pair is neutral-to-bearish in the near-term. The above 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators remain directionless within negative levels.
Additionally, it is trading between directionless 100 and 200 SMAs, while below a bearish 20 SMA. The decline will likely continue on a break below 1.1805, the immediate support level.
Support levels are set at 1.1805, 1.1750, and1.1705.
Resistance levels are at 1.1880, 1.1920, and 1.1960.
For next week, the Euro is ready to go higher due to the fact that now the price hit support zone 1.1850-1.1830, which can bounce back higher to main resistance zone 1.1970-1.1990. Hence, our technical indicators, as shown in the following chart suggest to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.1840, setting a stop loss at 1.17, and to Short it at or above 1.19866, setting a stop loss at 1.21124.
As of 05:37 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.18380.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 6: exchange rate 1.1820 Dollars, maximum 1.1997, minimum 1.1643. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 9: exchange rate 1.1813 Dollars, maximum 1.1990, minimum 1.1636. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 10: exchange rate 1.1817 Dollars, maximum 1.1994, minimum 1.1640. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 11: exchange rate 1.1797 Dollars, maximum 1.1974, minimum 1.1620.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 12: exchange rate 1.1838 Dollars, maximum 1.2016, minimum 1.1660. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 13: exchange rate 1.1866 Dollars, maximum 1.2044, minimum 1.1688. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 16: exchange rate 1.1884 Dollars, maximum 1.2062, minimum 1.1706. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 17: exchange rate 1.1918 Dollars, maximum 1.2097, minimum 1.1739. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 18: exchange rate 1.1911 Dollars, maximum 1.2090, minimum 1.1732.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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