Forex Forecast: 9 – 13/11/2020

How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement


EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go long on the EURUSD at or below 1.1750 and short it at 1.17204. The currency pair throught this week has been trading betwwen 1.1859 and 1.1603. So this past Monday, we could have entered an long position at 1.1622, selling it on Tuesday ar 1.1740, for 1.02% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1720, covering it Wednesday at 1.1603 for 1% gain, while buying an extra long position on Tuesday at 1.1603, selling it today, Thursday at 1.1859 for an extra 2.21% profit.


Fundamental Overview

Speculative interest keeps selling the greenback and buying equities ahead of the final result of the US presidential election, with the EURUSD trading well above the 1.1800 level after flirting with the 1.1600 level on Wednesday. The focus remains on the US presidential election, as a winner has not been announced. A few states are still counting votes, and a definition may come after Wall Street’s opening. However, US President Trump is already disputing some results in court.


During the European morning, Germany published September Factory Orders, which were up 0.5% MoM, missing the market’s expectations. When compared to a year earlier, however, orders beat expectations, down by 1.9%. The Union released September Retail Sales which were down 2% in the month, worse than anticipated.

The US has published today, employment-related data,  with Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 30 printing at 751K, worse than the 732K expected. Challenger Job Cuts in October decreased to 80.666K. Nonfarm Productivity advanced 4.9% in Q3, slightly worse than anticipated. Later today, the US Federal Reserve is having a monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to maintain the status quo and be a non-event.


Technical Analysis

EURUSD has hit a new high above 1.1850, extending its gains. Biden is leading in the slow vote count and as a handful of results are awaited. Republicans are on course to retaining the Senate. The Fed and jobless claims are also eyed.



The EURUSD pair is trading near a daily high of 1.1859 as the dollar’s sell-off continues. The short-term picture is bullish, as, in the above 4-hour chart, the pair has firmly advanced above all of its moving averages. The 20 SMA, however, remains below the larger ones, although it keeps advancing.


Technical indicators, in the meantime, maintain their bullish slopes within overbought readings. The risk is skewed to the upside, although the election’s noise may well trigger a U-turn in the current risk-on stance.

Support levels are at 1.1810, 1.1765, and 1.1720. Resistance levels are at 1.1870, 1.1915, and 1.1960.


For next week and as illustrated in the following EURUSD 4-hour chart, EURUSD, our technical indicators are suggesting to go short on the currency pair at or above 1.1831, setting a stop loss at 1.19, and to go long at or below 1.1650.



As of 3:07 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.1829.



EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 6: exchange rate 1.1728 Dollars, maximum 1.1904, minimum 1.1552. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 9: exchange rate 1.1815 Dollars, maximum 1.1992, minimum 1.1638. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 10: exchange rate 1.1809 Dollars, maximum 1.1986, minimum 1.1632. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 11: exchange rate 1.1784 Dollars, maximum 1.1961, minimum 1.1607.



In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 12: exchange rate 1.1704 Dollars, maximum 1.1880, minimum 1.1528. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 13: exchange rate 1.1627 Dollars, maximum 1.1801, minimum 1.1453. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 16: exchange rate 1.1634 Dollars, maximum 1.1809, minimum 1.1459. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 17: exchange rate 1.1613 Dollars, maximum 1.1787, minimum 1.1439. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 18: exchange rate 1.1634 Dollars, maximum 1.1809, minimum 1.1459.



Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira nor Keysoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of the future performance of the EUR/USD.

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