EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on The EURUSD at or below 1.1770, setting a stop loss at 1.16656, and Short the currency pair at or above 1.18, setting a stop loss at 1.1850.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1862 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.1782 low, set this past Monday. So, we could have short the currency pair on Monday at 1.1808, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1784, for 0.2% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1846, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1795, for 0.43% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.1856, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1791, for 0.55% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have short it again at 1.1860, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1832, for an extra 0.24% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair consolidated gains around the 1.1850 mark through the first half of the day, as investors awaited US employment-related figures ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll report scheduled for Friday.

Generally speaking, the market’s sentiment is sour. European equities struggle around their opening levels, although US futures are up. On the other hand, government bonds are on demand, sending yields lower.

The pair was barely affected by US data. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 27 printed at 340K, better than anticipated. Nonfarm Productivity came in at 2.1% in Q2, missing expectations, while Unit Labor Cost in the same period improved to 1.3%. Also, Challenger Job Cuts were down 17% in August to 15,732, the lowest since June 1997. Finally, the Goods Trade Balance deficit expanded to $-87.8 billion in July.

Earlier in the day, the EU published the July Producer Price Index, which rose 2.3% MoM AND 12.1% YoY, beating expectations. The US will publish later in the day July Factory Orders, foreseen up 0.3%.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading around 1.1850, close to the highest levels in four weeks. Wednesday’s weak US continues weighing on the dollar, casing doubts about Fed tapering. Chances of ECB tapering have risen following upbeat data. US jobless claims beat estimates with 340K.


The EURUSD pair keeps firming up above the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily decline, measured between 1.1908 and the year low at 1.1663, at 1.1820, the immediate support level. The near-term picture indicates that bulls may be losing interest. In the above 4-hour chart, the pair keeps developing above a bullish 20 SMA, which advances above the longer ones.

The Momentum indicator eases within positive levels, while the RSI indicator consolidates around 63. As long as the pair remains above the mentioned Fibonacci support level, chances for a steeper decline are limited.

Support levels are at 1.1820, 1.1785, and 1.1750. Resistance levels are at 1.1865, 1.1910, and 1.1950.

For next week, and after reaching the resistance level at 1.18560, now is the time to cool-down for the EURUSD. Hence, our technical indicators suggest to Short the currency pair, until it touches the support price level. So, we would short it at or above 1.1831, setting a Stop loss at 1.19, and go Long at or below $1.17821, setting a Stop loss at 1.17.


As of 3:26 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.18536.


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 3: exchange rate 1.1875 Dollars, maximum 1.2053, minimum 1.1697. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 6: exchange rate 1.1887 Dollars, maximum 1.2065, minimum 1.1709. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 7: exchange rate 1.1884 Dollars, maximum 1.2062, minimum 1.1706. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 8: exchange rate 1.1930 Dollars, maximum 1.2109, minimum 1.1751.


In 1 week, In 1 week Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, September, 9: exchange rate 1.1911 Dollars, maximum 1.2090, minimum 1.1732. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 10: exchange rate 1.1927 Dollars, maximum 1.2106, minimum 1.1748. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 13: exchange rate 1.1938 Dollars, maximum 1.2117, minimum 1.1759. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, September, 14: exchange rate 1.1984 Dollars, maximum 1.2164, minimum 1.1804. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, September, 15: exchange rate 1.2010 Dollars, maximum 1.2190, minimum 1.1830.






Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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