Forex Forecast: 5 – 9 February 2024 for MT4 MT5

Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.0890, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0840, and going Short at or above 1.08930, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0889 high, set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.0780 low set today. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0840, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0849, for 0.08% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0840, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0856, for 0.15% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0840, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0888, for an extra 0.44% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair hovers around the 1.0800 figure, depressed amid broad US Dollar strength following the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The United States (US) central bank decided to leave the interest rate unchanged as widely anticipated. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement suffered a large number of changes, dropping the wording related to additional rate hikes and replacing it to carefully assess upcoming data. Also, policymakers remarked they need to gain “greater confidence” that inflation is approaching its 2% goal before cutting rates.

Chairman Jerome Powell offered a press conference following the announcement, saying a March rate cut is not the base case. His words spurred USD demand and sent Wall Street into negative territory. Asian and European stocks partially shrugged off the dismal mood and traded mixed throughout the first half of the day.

Data-wise, the Eurozone unveiled the preliminary estimate of the January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The annual HICP rose 2.8%, as expected, while the core annualized reading printed at 3.3%, easing from the previous 3.4% but above the 3.2% expected. Across the pond, the US released the January Challenger Job Cuts, which showed US-based employers announced 82,307 cuts in January, much higher than the  34,817 from December.

Later in the day, the country will publish Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 26, Q4 Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity, and finally, the January ISM Manufacturing PMI. Employment-related figures are relevant ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

 Technical Analysis

The EURUSD continues to fluctuate slightly above 1.0800 in the early American session on Thursday. The data from the US showed that weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected, limiting the USD’s gains and allowing the pair to hold its ground.

 

The EURUSD pair bounced from an intraday low of 1.0779, still trading in the red. The daily chart shows the pair met buyers around a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) but remains below the 20 and 200 SMAs, with the shorter one maintaining its bearish slope. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head south within negative levels, supporting another leg south.

The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators are recovering from their early lows, maintaining bullish slopes but still developing in negative territory, limiting the risk of further advances. At the same time, EURUSD is developing below all its moving averages, which offer bearish slopes and reflect selling interest is still high.

Support levels are at 1.0780, 1.0745, and 1.0710.

Resistance levels are at 1.0845, 1.0890, and 1.0930.

For the next week, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.0850, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07298, and going Short at or above 1.08578, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0947.

As of 14:13 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08186.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, February, 2: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, February, 5: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, February, 6: exchange rate 1.078 US Dollars, maximum 1.094, minimum 1.062. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, February, 7: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, February, 8: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, February, 9: exchange rate 1.078 US Dollars, maximum 1.094, minimum 1.062. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, February, 12: exchange rate 1.076 US Dollars, maximum 1.092, minimum 1.060. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, February, 13: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, February, 14: exchange rate 1.077 US Dollars, maximum 1.093, minimum 1.061.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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