Forex Forecast: 5 – 9 April 2021

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to initiate a Long position at or below 1.17, and to Short the currency pair at or above 1.19715. This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1797 high, set this past Monday, and 1.1703 low, set Tuesday. So, if we have kept our trading discipline, we had no opportunity to go long or short on the currency pair, as the price of the currency pair is consolidating at around 1.17, as predicted by our last week technical indicators.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair trades near a daily high of 1.1753, confined to the lower end of its latest range. Financial markets are pretty quiet as the Easter holidays begin, despite traveling restrictions in most major economies.

Late on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden finally unveiled its investment plan, a $2.3 trillion first part that could be part of a larger one of $4 trillion. As expected, his announcement included tax hikes for business, which already faces strong opposition among Republicans.

European data was mixed, as German Retail Sales were up by 1.2% in February and fell by 9% when compared to a year earlier. The final versions of the March Manufacturing PMIs for the region were upwardly revised, with that for the EU printing at 62.4. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 26, which unexpectedly surged to 719K.

Later today, the country will release the final reading of the March Markit Manufacturing PMI and the official ISM Manufacturing PMI, this last foreseen at 61.3 from 60.8 in February.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are on retreat mode while stocks are under pressure, undermined by dismal US employment-related data.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading back below  1.1750 after the ISM Manufacturing PMI smashed estimates with 64.7 points, the highest since 1983. Signs of robust US economic activity are boosting the dollar.

 

The EURUSD pair remains subdued despite the ongoing recovery. The above 4-hour chart shows that the price is struggling to extend gains beyond a bearish 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages head south well below the current level.

Technical indicators advance within negative levels, without strength enough to confirm further gains ahead. Bulls could have some chances if the pair manages to break above 1.1770, the immediate resistance level.

Support levels are at 1.1705, 1.1665, and 1.1620, while Resistance levels are at 1.1770, 1.1810, and 1.1850.

 For next week, the price for EURUSD is moving down nicely. Currently, it is approaching a strong support level, hence, our technical indicators are expecting a reversal between 1.16419 and 1.16.price level. So, for next week, we would go long on the EUR USD at or below 1.16419 and short it at or above 1.19745.

 

As of 4:11 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.1748.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:  Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, April, 2: exchange rate 1.1741 Dollars, maximum 1.1917, minimum 1.1565. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, April, 5: exchange rate 1.1695 Dollars, maximum 1.1870, minimum 1.1520. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, April, 6: exchange rate 1.1669 Dollars, maximum 1.1844, minimum 1.1494. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, April, 7: exchange rate 1.1688 Dollars, maximum 1.1863, minimum 1.1513..

 

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, April, 8: exchange rate 1.1646 Dollars, maximum 1.1821, minimum 1.1471. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, April, 9: exchange rate 1.1612 Dollars, maximum 1.1786, minimum 1.1438. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, April, 12: exchange rate 1.1530 Dollars, maximum 1.1703, minimum 1.1357. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, April, 13: exchange rate 1.1558 Dollars, maximum 1.1731, minimum 1.1385. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, April, 14: exchange rate 1.1547 Dollars, maximum 1.1720, minimum 1.1374.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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