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Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.08717, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06575, and going Short at or above 1.08718, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09271.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0871 high set this today Thursday, and 1.0768 low set this past Tuesday.
So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0781, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0826, for 0.42% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0769, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0825, for 0.52% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0808, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0870, for 0.57% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0845, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0870, for an extra 0.23% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD fluctuates in a tight channel at around 1.0850 after closing the third consecutive day in positive territory on Wednesday. The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but buyers could hesitate to bet on an extended uptrend unless the pair manages to clear the key technical hurdle at 1.0870.
The Euro gathered strength against its rivals on Wednesday after the data from Germany showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.2% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter, coming in better than the market expectation for a 0.1% contraction. Additionally, annual inflation in Germany, as measured by the Consumer price Index (CPI) rose to 2% in October’s flash estimate from 1.6% in September, further boosting the Euro.
On the other hand, mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to stay resilient against its rivals. The ADP Employment Change arrived at 233,000 for October to beat analysts’ estimate by a wide margin, while the first estimate of the annualized GDP growth for the third quarter came in at 2.8% and fell short of the market consensus of 3%.
Later in the day, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data from the Eurozone and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures from the US will be featured in the economic calendar. Investors are likely to ignore these readings. The US GDP report showed on Wednesday that the PCE Price Index rose 1.5% in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2. Hence, the monthly PCE inflation reading for September is unlikely to trigger a reaction.
Toward the end of the European session, month-end flows could ramp up market volatility and cause major pairs to move irregularly.
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD holds above 1.0850 after EU inflation data.
The currency pair trades marginally higher on the day above 1.0850 in the European session on Thursday. The data from the Eurozone showed that the annual HICP inflation rose to 2% in October from 1.7% in September, helping the Euro hold its ground.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact. On the upside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a key resistance level at 1.0870. Once the pair flips that level into support, 1.0900 (round level) could act as interim resistance before 1.0940 (100-day SMA).
On the downside, first support could be seen at 1.0800 (round level) before 1.0750 (static level) and 1.0700 (round level, static level).
Next week
For next week, it seems the currency pair price has not reached the minimum values yet. Apparently wave “4” is the longest correction we have had recently.
According to the data, the price tends to the area of strong resistance at 1.07575. This will be the completion of the corrective wave “C”.
We would still like to see an upward movement with a renewal of the upper levels. At a minimum, we expect to reach the 1.09508 area.
A more risky entry into a long position is possible – from current levels, below 1.0950.
A more conservative entry may be possible at around 1.07575.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.09508, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07713, and going Short at or above 1.09509, setting a Stop Loss at 1.11551.
As of 11:06 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.08653.
EURUSD insights
Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.
If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 1: exchange rate 1.090 US Dollars, maximum 1.106, minimum 1.074. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 4: exchange rate 1.091 US Dollars, maximum 1.107, minimum 1.075. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 5: exchange rate 1.093 US Dollars, maximum 1.109, minimum 1.077. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 6: exchange rate 1.090 US Dollars, maximum 1.106, minimum 1.074.
EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 7: exchange rate 1.095 US Dollars, maximum 1.111, minimum 1.079. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 8: exchange rate 1.093 US Dollars, maximum 1.109, minimum 1.077. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 11: exchange rate 1.091 US Dollars, maximum 1.107, minimum 1.075. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 12: exchange rate 1.086 US Dollars, maximum 1.102, minimum 1.070. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 13: exchange rate 1.090 US Dollars, maximum 1.106, minimum 1.074.
To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
